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Dinamo Minsk
15:30
Slavia Mozyr
Thu 15 Oct, 15:30 Dinamo Stadium Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Banker
Home win
63%
Bookmakers 64%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
15%
Bookmakers 14%
Us 63%Bookmakers 64% Edge -0.9 pts Uncertainty ±1.5%

Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.

Why

  • Home win: 63% against a market price of 64% (-0.9%).
  • Expected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.
  • Dinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.
  • Dinamo Minsk's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.
  • Tagged Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
1.3
Dinamo Minsk attack
1.1
Dinamo Minsk defence
0.7
Slavia Mozyr attack
0.2

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Not both teams score Both teams to score Avoid 51%
Bookmakers 50% at 1.85, edge +0.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.4%
  • Not both teams score: 51% against a market price of 50% (+0.8%).
  • Expected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Dinamo Minsk's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to not both teams score.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 0.6 pts from not both teams score.
  • Dinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from not both teams score.
  • Slavia Mozyr's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to not both teams score.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.8%).

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Banker 75%
Bookmakers 75% at 1.25, edge -0.4 pts, uncertainty ±1.0%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 75% against a market price of 75% (-0.4%).
  • Expected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 71% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Dinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Dinamo Minsk's defence (0.80× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 75% likely, uncertainty only ±1.0%, market agrees.
Over 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Avoid 53%
Bookmakers 53% at 1.77, edge -0.7 pts, uncertainty ±1.1%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 53% against a market price of 53% (-0.7%).
  • Expected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±11.5%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Dinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Dinamo Minsk's defence (0.80× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Banker 69%
Bookmakers 68% at 1.37, edge +0.4 pts, uncertainty ±0.7%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 69% against a market price of 68% (+0.4%).
  • Expected goals Dinamo Minsk 1.73 – 0.82 Slavia Mozyr.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 74% (uncertainty ±10.5%), so it carries 7% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Dinamo Minsk's attack (1.21× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 69% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees.

Likely scores

Dinamo Minsk down, Slavia Mozyr across
012345
08%6%3%1%0%0%
113%12%5%1%0%0%
212%10%4%1%0%0%
37%6%2%1%0%0%
43%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–0 13%, 1–1 12%, 2–0 12%.

Team news

Rest: Dinamo Minsk 4 days, Slavia Mozyr 5 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

1 version
  1. Version 1 Thu 13:14, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.