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Market-only mode. No fresh data from our provider (last successful refresh: 316 minutes ago). Until it is fixed we publish the bookmakers' prices without claiming an edge.
Wolves
18:45
Bolton
Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 Molineux Stadium Tim Robinson Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Avoid
Home win
66%
Bookmakers 69%
Draw
20%
Bookmakers 19%
Away win
14%
Bookmakers 12%
Us 66%Bookmakers 69% Edge -2.7 pts Uncertainty ±1.7%

Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).

Why

  • Home win: 66% against a market price of 69% (-2.7%).
  • Expected goals Wolves 1.86 – 1.23 Bolton.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.
  • Wolves's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.
  • Bolton's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
1.6
Wolves attack
0.7
Bolton defence
0.5

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Both teams score Both teams to score Avoid 54%
Bookmakers 53% at 1.76, edge +1.4 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Both teams score: 54% against a market price of 53% (+1.4%).
  • Expected goals Wolves 1.86 – 1.23 Bolton.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to both teams score.
  • Wolves's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to both teams score.
  • Bolton's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to both teams score.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.4%).

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Banker 82%
Bookmakers 82% at 1.17, edge -0.1 pts, uncertainty ±0.7%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 82% against a market price of 82% (-0.1%).
  • Expected goals Wolves 1.86 – 1.23 Bolton.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 81% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 0.6 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 82% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees.
Over 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Avoid 60%
Bookmakers 60% at 1.58, edge -0.1 pts, uncertainty ±1.2%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 60% against a market price of 60% (-0.1%).
  • Expected goals Wolves 1.86 – 1.23 Bolton.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±9.8%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Wolves's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Bolton's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Banker 63%
Bookmakers 63% at 1.52, edge +0.0 pts, uncertainty ±1.1%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 63% against a market price of 63% (+0.0%).
  • Expected goals Wolves 1.86 – 1.23 Bolton.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±10.5%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) takes 0.9 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Wolves's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Avoid 54%
Bookmakers 54% at 1.73, edge -0.4 pts, uncertainty ±0.8%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 54% against a market price of 54% (-0.4%).
  • Expected corners: Wolves 6.5, Bolton 4.7 — 11.2 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±15.9%), so it carries 5% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+21% corners at home) takes 0.6 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Wolves's corners for (1.17× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Banker 70%
Bookmakers 70% at 1.34, edge +0.1 pts, uncertainty ±0.7%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 70% against a market price of 70% (+0.1%).
  • Expected corners: Wolves 6.5, Bolton 4.7 — 11.2 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 72% (uncertainty ±12.6%), so it carries 5% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+21% corners at home) adds 0.5 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Wolves's corners for (1.17× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 70% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees.
Over 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Avoid 58%
Bookmakers 58% at 1.61, edge +0.2 pts, uncertainty ±0.8%
  • Over 9.5 corners: 58% against a market price of 58% (+0.2%).
  • Expected corners: Wolves 6.5, Bolton 4.7 — 11.2 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±14.8%), so it carries 5% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+21% corners at home) adds 0.6 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Wolves's corners for (1.17× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.2%).

Cards

Over 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 57%
Bookmakers 58% at 1.63, edge -0.4 pts, uncertainty ±0.9%
  • Over 3.5 cards: 57% against a market price of 58% (-0.4%).
  • Expected cards: Wolves 1.6, Bolton 2.1 — 3.8 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±15.0%), so it carries 6% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (-16% cards at home) takes 0.3 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).
Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Banker 61%
Bookmakers 60% at 1.56, edge +0.3 pts, uncertainty ±0.7%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 61% against a market price of 60% (+0.3%).
  • Expected cards: Wolves 1.6, Bolton 2.1 — 3.8 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 67% (uncertainty ±14.3%), so it carries 5% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Tagged Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees.
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Banker 73%
Bookmakers 73% at 1.31, edge +0.3 pts, uncertainty ±0.4%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 73% against a market price of 73% (+0.3%).
  • Expected cards: Wolves 1.6, Bolton 2.1 — 3.8 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 81% (uncertainty ±12.0%), so it carries 4% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Tagged Banker: 73% likely, uncertainty only ±0.4%, market agrees.

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 69%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±18.2%
  • Over 20.5 fouls: 69%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Wolves 11.3, Bolton 12.3 — 23.6 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±18.2%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-8% fouls at home) takes 5.6 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Wolves's fouls for (1.05× the league rate) adds 3.3 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Wolves's fouls conceded (1.03× the league rate against) adds 2.5 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Bolton's fouls for (1.01× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 56%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±21.4%
  • Over 22.5 fouls: 56%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Wolves 11.3, Bolton 12.3 — 23.6 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±21.4%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-8% fouls at home) takes 6.7 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • Wolves's fouls for (1.05× the league rate) adds 3.8 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Wolves's fouls conceded (1.03× the league rate against) adds 2.9 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Bolton's fouls for (1.01× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 58%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±22.2%
  • Under 24.5 fouls: 58%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Wolves 11.3, Bolton 12.3 — 23.6 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±22.2%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-8% fouls at home) adds 7.0 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Wolves's fouls for (1.05× the league rate) takes 3.9 pts from under 24.5 fouls.
  • Wolves's fouls conceded (1.03× the league rate against) takes 3.1 pts from under 24.5 fouls.
  • Bolton's fouls for (1.01× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from under 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Avoid 74%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±12.7%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 74%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Wolves 15.5, Bolton 11.6 — 27.1 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±12.7%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+20% shots at home) adds 14.1 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Wolves's shots for (1.11× the league rate) adds 7.7 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Wolves's shots conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 5.4 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Bolton's shots conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 3.3 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 63%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±15.4%
  • Over 24.5 shots: 63%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Wolves 15.5, Bolton 11.6 — 27.1 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±15.4%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+20% shots at home) adds 15.8 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Wolves's shots for (1.11× the league rate) adds 9.2 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Wolves's shots conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 6.4 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Bolton's shots conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 3.8 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 50%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±16.9%
  • Over 26.5 shots: 50%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Wolves 15.5, Bolton 11.6 — 27.1 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±16.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+20% shots at home) adds 15.9 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Wolves's shots for (1.11× the league rate) adds 9.8 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Wolves's shots conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 6.9 pts from over 26.5 shots.
  • Bolton's shots conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 3.9 pts from over 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Avoid 71%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.6%
  • Over 7.5 shots on target: 71%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Wolves 5.5, Bolton 3.9 — 9.5 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.6%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots on target at home) adds 8.9 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Bolton's shots on target conceded (1.09× the league rate against) adds 5.0 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Wolves's shots on target for (1.08× the league rate) adds 4.4 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Wolves's shots on target conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Avoid 59%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±12.3%
  • Over 8.5 shots on target: 59%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Wolves 5.5, Bolton 3.9 — 9.5 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±12.3%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots on target at home) adds 9.9 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Bolton's shots on target conceded (1.09× the league rate against) adds 5.8 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Wolves's shots on target for (1.08× the league rate) adds 5.2 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Wolves's shots on target conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 1.8 pts from over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Avoid 53%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±13.0%
  • Under 9.5 shots on target: 53%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Wolves 5.5, Bolton 3.9 — 9.5 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±13.0%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots on target at home) takes 9.8 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Bolton's shots on target conceded (1.09× the league rate against) takes 6.0 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Wolves's shots on target for (1.08× the league rate) takes 5.5 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Bolton's shots on target for (1.04× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Likely scores

Wolves down, Bolton across
012345
05%5%3%1%0%0%
18%11%6%3%1%0%
28%10%6%2%1%0%
35%6%4%2%0%0%
42%3%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–1 11%, 2–1 10%, 2–0 8%.

Team news

Referee: Tim Robinson.

Rest: Wolves 3 days, Bolton 3 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Out or doubtful

  • C. Forino-Joseph (Bolton): missing fixture, groin injury
  • R. Jimenez (Wolves): missing fixture, knee injury
  • Y. Mosquera (Wolves): missing fixture, ankle injury

Why it changed

1 version
  1. Version 1 Tue 01:53, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.

Events we caught

  • Tue 01:53 C. Forino-Joseph (Bolton) ruled out: Groin Injury Pending
  • Tue 01:53 Y. Mosquera (Wolves) ruled out: Ankle Injury Pending
  • Tue 01:53 R. Jimenez (Wolves) ruled out: Knee Injury Pending