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Entry #121: pick published

Hash verified

Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo: Away win 44% @ 2.09 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T04:00:03.924626+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 4a003903e9a38e5d7b72847820fc70ee74c938a6f6a7a559f957bf92c0762a44
Stored hash: 43622bbca2f0528a9c6c48364ac70b586382da7dc77eb90385fff2a22747dca9
Recomputed: 43622bbca2f0528a9c6c48364ac70b586382da7dc77eb90385fff2a22747dca9

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Flamengo",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.017,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 46% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals Estudiantes L.P. 1.46 – 1.21 Flamengo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±9.7%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+52% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nFlamengo's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nEstudiantes L.P.'s defence (0.90× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nFlamengo's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Draw 31% → 31% (-0.6 pts); Away win 43% → 44% (+1.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Away win 46% → 46%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1640555,
  "home": "Estudiantes L.P.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
  "league_api_id": 13,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4569,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-13-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.09",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4399,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Draw 31% → 31% (-0.6 pts); Away win 43% → 44% (+1.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Away win 46% → 46%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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