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Entry #490: pick published

Hash verified

Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Away win 37% @ 2.47 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T02:28:25.317478+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 776a6145f48bd90c88212abef94afe75d57c154a185a05cd45e326022df804ab
Stored hash: 7aba41b2d21443f9424b1f24f287149dc4814b01da19597008812975fb367102
Recomputed: 7aba41b2d21443f9424b1f24f287149dc4814b01da19597008812975fb367102

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "U.N.A.M. - Pumas",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.013,
  "explanation": "Away win: 37% against a market price of 38% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Atlante FC 1.39 – 1.22 U.N.A.M. - Pumas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nU.N.A.M. - Pumas's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1550995,
  "home": "Atlante FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T03:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3791,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.47",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3662,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}

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