Toronto FC
23:30
DC United
Wed 28 Oct, 23:30
BMO Field
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 86%Books 84% Best odds 1.18 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
49%
Bookmakers 49%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
28%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 49%Bookmakers 49%
Edge +0.4 pts
Uncertainty ±2.0%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 49% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.4% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 49% against a market price of 49% (+0.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsToronto FC
LWDWL
- 24 Oct · A v Columbus Crew 2–4 (xG 2.36–2.30)
- 17 Oct · A v New York Red Bulls 2–0 (xG 0.66–1.01)
- 14 Oct · H v Orlando City SC 3–3 (xG 2.84–2.30)
- 10 Oct · H v CF Montreal 2–1 (xG 1.61–1.54)
- 27 Sep · A v Nashville SC 0–2
DC United
LLLWL
- 24 Oct · H v FC Cincinnati 0–2 (xG 0.40–0.99)
- 21 Oct · A v FC Cincinnati 1–2 (xG 0.97–1.85)
- 17 Oct · A v Orlando City SC 1–4 (xG 2.60–2.62)
- 14 Oct · H v New York Red Bulls 2–1 (xG 1.26–3.00)
- 10 Oct · A v Inter Miami 0–4 (xG 0.66–2.41)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC 1 · draws 2 · DC United 2, 3.4 goals a game
- 25 Jul 2026 · DC United 2–1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 10 May 2025 · Toronto FC 2–0 DC United (Major League Soccer)
- 23 Feb 2025 · DC United 2–2 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
- 31 Aug 2024 · Toronto FC 1–3 DC United (Major League Soccer)
- 1 Jun 2024 · DC United 2–2 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)