Mirassol
19:30
Sao Paulo
Sat 24 Oct, 19:30
José Maria de Campos Maia
Lucas Casagrande
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
44%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
28%
Bookmakers 29%
Us 44%Bookmakers 43%
Edge +1.3 pts
Uncertainty ±2.5%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 44% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.3% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 44% against a market price of 43% (+1.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMirassol
WLDWD
- 16 Oct · H v Internacional 2–0 (xG 3.20–0.72)
- 11 Oct · A v Bahia 0–1 (xG 1.82–3.15)
- 7 Oct · A v RB Bragantino 1–1 (xG 1.19–2.56)
- 19 Sep · H v Botafogo 2–0 (xG 1.22–1.35)
- 13 Sep · H v Vitoria 2–2 (xG 1.46–1.64)
Sao Paulo
WWLLW
- 18 Oct · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–0 (xG 1.26–0.92)
- 11 Oct · H v Vitoria 2–1 (xG 1.80–0.79)
- 8 Oct · A v Cruzeiro 0–2
- 2 Oct · H v Santos 1–2 (xG 1.83–0.60)
- 20 Sep · H v Internacional 1–0
Head-to-head
Mirassol 2 · draws 0 · Sao Paulo 1, 2.0 goals a game
- 26 Apr 2026 · Sao Paulo 1–0 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 19 Oct 2025 · Mirassol 3–0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 24 May 2025 · Sao Paulo 0–2 Mirassol (Serie A)