Mirassol
1–1
Sao Paulo
Sat 24 Oct, 19:30
José Maria de Campos Maia
Lucas Casagrande, Brazil
Match result: no bet
LostHome win
43%
Bookmakers 41%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 29%
Away win
29%
Bookmakers 30%
Us 43%Bookmakers 41%
Edge +2.2 pts
Uncertainty ±2.7%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 43% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.2% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 43% against a market price of 41% (+2.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMirassol
WLDWD
- 16 Oct · H v Internacional 2–0 (xG 3.20–0.72)
- 11 Oct · A v Bahia 0–1 (xG 1.82–3.15)
- 7 Oct · A v RB Bragantino 1–1 (xG 1.19–2.56)
- 19 Sep · H v Botafogo 2–0 (xG 1.22–1.35)
- 13 Sep · H v Vitoria 2–2 (xG 1.46–1.64)
Sao Paulo
WWLLW
- 18 Oct · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–0 (xG 1.26–0.92)
- 11 Oct · H v Vitoria 2–1 (xG 1.80–0.79)
- 8 Oct · A v Cruzeiro 0–2
- 2 Oct · H v Santos 1–2 (xG 1.83–0.60)
- 20 Sep · H v Internacional 1–0
Head-to-head
Mirassol 2 · draws 0 · Sao Paulo 1, 2.0 goals a game
- 26 Apr 2026 · Sao Paulo 1–0 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 19 Oct 2025 · Mirassol 3–0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 24 May 2025 · Sao Paulo 0–2 Mirassol (Serie A)