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Atletico-MG
22:30
Cruzeiro
Thu 29 Oct, 22:30 Arena MRV

Bets on this match

Best expected value first, at the best price we found
  • Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsBanker
    Us 73%Books 68% Edge +4.3 pts Best odds 1.44 (Bet365) Expected return +4.4%

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge
  • Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals
    Us 75%Books 78% Best odds 1.26 (1xBet)

Match result: no bet

Home win
38%
Bookmakers 38%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
34%
Bookmakers 35%
Us 38%Bookmakers 38% Edge -0.2 pts Uncertainty ±1.9%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 38% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

  • Home win: 38% against a market price of 38% (-0.2%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Atletico-MG

LLWWW
  • 26 Oct · A v Flamengo 2–3 (xG 1.01–2.94)
  • 21 Oct · A v Atletico Torque 0–2 (xG 0.61–3.58)
  • 17 Oct · H v Coritiba 1–0 (xG 1.39–0.69)
  • 14 Oct · H v Atletico Torque 3–0 (xG 2.16–0.31)
  • 11 Oct · H v Santos 2–1 (xG 1.44–1.12)

Cruzeiro

WWLWW
  • 23 Oct · H v Remo 1–0 (xG 0.89–0.28)
  • 18 Oct · A v Gremio 4–2 (xG 1.54–2.07)
  • 13 Oct · A v RB Bragantino 2–4 (xG 2.80–2.88)
  • 8 Oct · H v Sao Paulo 2–0
  • 20 Sep · A v Vitoria 3–1 (xG 0.66–0.50)

Head-to-head

Atletico-MG 2 · draws 3 · Cruzeiro 0, 1.8 goals a game

  • 3 May 2026 · Cruzeiro 1–3 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
  • 16 Oct 2025 · Atletico-MG 1–1 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
  • 18 May 2025 · Cruzeiro 0–0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
  • 11 Aug 2024 · Cruzeiro 0–0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
  • 21 Apr 2024 · Atletico-MG 3–0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)