Santos
22:30
Palmeiras
Wed 28 Oct, 22:30
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Flavio Rodrigues De Souza
Bets on this match
Best expected value first, at the best price we found-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsBankerUs 74%Books 72% Edge +1.8 pts Best odds 1.36 (Pinnacle) Expected return +0.5%
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Cards O/U 3.5Over 3.5 cardsUs 83%Books 84% Best odds 1.14 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
30%
Bookmakers 31%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
42%
Bookmakers 41%
Us 42%Bookmakers 41%
Edge +0.8 pts
Uncertainty ±2.4%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 42% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.8% alone is not enough).
- Away win: 42% against a market price of 41% (+0.8%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsSantos
DWLDW
- 25 Oct · H v Bahia 1–1 (xG 2.10–1.49)
- 18 Oct · A v Fluminense 2–1 (xG 2.26–0.99)
- 11 Oct · A v Atletico-MG 1–2 (xG 1.12–1.44)
- 8 Oct · H v Flamengo 2–2 (xG 2.42–1.15)
- 2 Oct · A v Sao Paulo 2–1 (xG 0.60–1.83)
Palmeiras
WLWWW
- 24 Oct · H v RB Bragantino 2–0 (xG 3.39–0.44)
- 22 Oct · H v Fluminense 0–1 (xG 0.64–0.24)
- 17 Oct · A v Atletico Paranaense 2–0 (xG 0.38–1.21)
- 15 Oct · A v Fluminense 2–1 (xG 1.19–0.52)
- 11 Oct · H v Corinthians 4–1 (xG 2.60–0.71)
Head-to-head
Santos 1 · draws 1 · Palmeiras 1, 1.7 goals a game
- 2 May 2026 · Palmeiras 1–1 Santos (Serie A)
- 16 Nov 2025 · Santos 1–0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 7 Nov 2025 · Palmeiras 2–0 Santos (Serie A)