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Sligo Rovers
18:45
Dundalk
Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 The Showgrounds Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Upset Watch
Home win
28%
Bookmakers 22%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 23%
Away win
48%
Bookmakers 55%
Us 28%Bookmakers 22% Edge +5.8 pts Uncertainty ±2.3%

Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.

Why

  • Home win: 28% against a market price of 22% (+5.8%).
  • Expected goals Sligo Rovers 1.64 – 1.52 Dundalk.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.
  • Dundalk's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to home win.
  • Sligo Rovers's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from home win.
  • Sligo Rovers's defence (1.16× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from home win.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.
  • What changed since v1:
  • Our probabilities: Home win 26% → 28% (+1.6 pts); Away win 49% → 48% (-1.6 pts).

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
2.7
Dundalk defence
1.8
Sligo Rovers attack
-1.6
Sligo Rovers defence
-1.6
Rest days
0.5

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Both teams score Both teams to score Banker 62%
Bookmakers 61% at 1.53, edge +0.5 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Both teams score: 62% against a market price of 61% (+0.5%).
  • Expected goals Sligo Rovers 1.64 – 1.52 Dundalk.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to both teams score.
  • Sligo Rovers's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to both teams score.
  • Dundalk's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to both teams score.
  • Sligo Rovers's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from both teams score.
  • Tagged Banker: 62% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Banker 84%
Bookmakers 84% at 1.14, edge -0.1 pts, uncertainty ±0.9%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 84% against a market price of 84% (-0.1%).
  • Expected goals Sligo Rovers 1.64 – 1.52 Dundalk.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 83% (uncertainty ±4.2%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Sligo Rovers's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Dundalk's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Sligo Rovers's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 84% likely, uncertainty only ±0.9%, market agrees.
Over 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Banker 61%
Bookmakers 62% at 1.52, edge -0.2 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 61% against a market price of 62% (-0.2%).
  • Expected goals Sligo Rovers 1.64 – 1.52 Dundalk.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Sligo Rovers's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Dundalk's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Sligo Rovers's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Banker 61%
Bookmakers 61% at 1.56, edge +0.2 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 61% against a market price of 61% (+0.2%).
  • Expected goals Sligo Rovers 1.64 – 1.52 Dundalk.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Sligo Rovers's defence (1.16× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Dundalk's defence (1.13× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Sligo Rovers's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Avoid 52%
Bookmakers 52% at 1.79, edge -0.2 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 52% against a market price of 52% (-0.2%).
  • Expected corners: Sligo Rovers 4.6, Dundalk 6.2 — 10.8 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Sligo Rovers's corners conceded (1.27× the league rate against) takes 2.9 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Sligo Rovers's corners for (0.87× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+12% corners at home) takes 1.1 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.2%).
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Banker 72%
Bookmakers 73% at 1.28, edge -0.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 72% against a market price of 73% (-0.8%).
  • Expected corners: Sligo Rovers 4.6, Dundalk 6.2 — 10.8 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 70% (uncertainty ±4.7%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Sligo Rovers's corners conceded (1.27× the league rate against) adds 3.9 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Sligo Rovers's corners for (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.7 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+12% corners at home) adds 1.4 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Dundalk's corners for (1.02× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 72% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.
Over 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Banker 60%
Bookmakers 60% at 1.55, edge -0.2 pts, uncertainty ±1.6%
  • Over 9.5 corners: 60% against a market price of 60% (-0.2%).
  • Expected corners: Sligo Rovers 4.6, Dundalk 6.2 — 10.8 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Sligo Rovers's corners conceded (1.27× the league rate against) adds 3.3 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Sligo Rovers's corners for (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from over 9.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+12% corners at home) adds 1.2 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Dundalk's corners for (1.02× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 60% likely, uncertainty only ±1.6%, market agrees.

Cards

Over 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 67%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.9%
  • Over 3.5 cards: 67%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Sligo Rovers 2.2, Dundalk 2.4 — 4.7 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.9%.
  • Match context (table stakes for Dundalk) adds 4.9 pts to over 3.5 cards.
  • Home advantage in this league (-11% cards at home) takes 4.1 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Sligo Rovers's cards conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Dundalk's cards for (1.03× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to over 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Avoid 51%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.4%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 51%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Sligo Rovers 2.2, Dundalk 2.4 — 4.7 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.4%.
  • Match context (table stakes for Dundalk) takes 5.4 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Home advantage in this league (-11% cards at home) adds 5.0 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Sligo Rovers's cards conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Dundalk's cards for (1.03× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Avoid 68%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.4%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 68%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Sligo Rovers 2.2, Dundalk 2.4 — 4.7 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.4%.
  • Match context (table stakes for Dundalk) takes 5.0 pts from under 5.5 cards.
  • Home advantage in this league (-11% cards at home) adds 4.9 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Sligo Rovers's cards conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Dundalk's cards for (1.03× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from under 5.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 63%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±13.8%
  • Over 20.5 fouls: 63%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Sligo Rovers 11.3, Dundalk 11.1 — 22.4 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±13.8%.
  • Sligo Rovers's fouls for (0.95× the league rate) takes 4.6 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Dundalk's fouls conceded (1.05× the league rate against) adds 3.7 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Sligo Rovers's fouls conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 3.6 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Dundalk's fouls for (1.02× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 52%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±14.4%
  • Under 22.5 fouls: 52%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Sligo Rovers 11.3, Dundalk 11.1 — 22.4 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±14.4%.
  • Sligo Rovers's fouls for (0.95× the league rate) adds 5.1 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Dundalk's fouls conceded (1.05× the league rate against) takes 3.9 pts from under 22.5 fouls.
  • Sligo Rovers's fouls conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 3.9 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Dundalk's fouls for (1.02× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from under 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 67%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±13.0%
  • Under 24.5 fouls: 67%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Sligo Rovers 11.3, Dundalk 11.1 — 22.4 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±13.0%.
  • Sligo Rovers's fouls for (0.95× the league rate) adds 4.7 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Sligo Rovers's fouls conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 3.6 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Dundalk's fouls conceded (1.05× the league rate against) takes 3.6 pts from under 24.5 fouls.
  • Dundalk's fouls for (1.02× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from under 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Banker 81%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.8%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 81%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Sligo Rovers 12.2, Dundalk 16.7 — 28.9 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.8%.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots conceded (1.28× the league rate against) adds 16.8 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots for (0.81× the league rate) takes 8.2 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots at home) adds 7.4 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Dundalk's shots for (1.08× the league rate) adds 4.8 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Banker: 81% likely, uncertainty only ±5.8% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Over 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 72%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.0%
  • Over 24.5 shots: 72%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Sligo Rovers 12.2, Dundalk 16.7 — 28.9 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.0%.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots conceded (1.28× the league rate against) adds 19.7 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots for (0.81× the league rate) takes 10.9 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots at home) adds 9.0 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Dundalk's shots for (1.08× the league rate) adds 6.1 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 60%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.8%
  • Over 26.5 shots: 60%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Sligo Rovers 12.2, Dundalk 16.7 — 28.9 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.8%.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots conceded (1.28× the league rate against) adds 21.1 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots for (0.81× the league rate) takes 13.2 pts from over 26.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots at home) adds 9.9 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Dundalk's shots for (1.08× the league rate) adds 6.9 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Banker 66%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.0%
  • Over 7.5 shots on target: 66%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Sligo Rovers 4.0, Dundalk 5.0 — 9.0 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.0%.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots on target conceded (1.25× the league rate against) adds 11.8 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots on target for (0.79× the league rate) takes 11.0 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% shots on target at home) adds 10.0 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Dundalk's shots on target conceded (1.11× the league rate against) adds 4.7 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Banker: 66% likely, uncertainty only ±5.0% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Over 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Avoid 54%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.2%
  • Over 8.5 shots on target: 54%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Sligo Rovers 4.0, Dundalk 5.0 — 9.0 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.2%.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots on target for (0.79× the league rate) takes 12.7 pts from over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots on target conceded (1.25× the league rate against) adds 12.4 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% shots on target at home) adds 10.6 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Dundalk's shots on target conceded (1.11× the league rate against) adds 5.1 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Avoid 59%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.8%
  • Under 9.5 shots on target: 59%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Sligo Rovers 4.0, Dundalk 5.0 — 9.0 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.8%.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots on target for (0.79× the league rate) adds 13.3 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Sligo Rovers's shots on target conceded (1.25× the league rate against) takes 11.8 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+25% shots on target at home) takes 10.1 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Dundalk's shots on target conceded (1.11× the league rate against) takes 5.0 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Likely scores

Sligo Rovers down, Dundalk across
012345
06%5%5%2%1%0%
16%12%8%4%2%0%
26%9%7%3%1%0%
33%5%4%2%1%0%
41%2%1%1%0%0%
50%1%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–1 12%, 2–1 9%, 1–2 8%.

Team news

Rest: Sligo Rovers 8 days, Dundalk 14 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

2 versions
  1. Version 2 Sat 03:52, scheduled
    • Our probabilities: Home win 26% → 28% (+1.6 pts); Away win 49% → 48% (-1.6 pts).
  2. Version 1 Sat 00:05, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.