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Växjö W
17:00
Häcken W
Fri 23 Oct, 17:00 Spiris Arena Match of the day: fully open
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.

Match result: no bet

Home win
2%
Bookmakers 3%
Draw
7%
Bookmakers 8%
Away win
90%
Bookmakers 90%
Us 90%Bookmakers 90% Edge +0.6 pts Uncertainty ±0.1%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: no profit at the best price (-0.7% expected per unit). Match simulator (10,000 simulated games per match)

Why

  • Away win: 90% against a market price of 90% (+0.6%).
  • Expected goals Växjö W 0.36 – 4.61 Häcken W.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 97% (uncertainty ±1.7%), so it carries 5% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Current form (Elo gap -460 for Växjö W, Växjö W creating -25% xG lately, Häcken W creating +139% xG lately) adds 3.0 pts to away win.
  • Tagged Avoid: no profit at the best price (-0.7% expected per unit).

What moved the number

Points of probability for away win
Form
3.0

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of away win, per bookmaker

Every market we have a call on

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict. Markets we would not touch are left out.

Cards

Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Model view 95%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±3.5%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 95%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Växjö W 1.1, Häcken W 0.7 — 1.8 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±3.5%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+12% cards at home) takes 0.8 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Växjö W's cards for (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Häcken W's cards conceded (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Växjö W's cards conceded (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Model view: 95% likely, uncertainty ±3.5%; no bookmaker price to compare.

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Elo rating Växjö W 1405, Häcken W 1865. Our model reads recent xG for and against, Elo and these meetings before kickoff; the reasons above show how much each moved the numbers.

Växjö W

LLLDL
  • 17 Oct · A v Brommapojkarna W 1–2
  • 3 Oct · H v Kristianstad W 0–2
  • 26 Sep · A v AIK W 0–3
  • 19 Sep · A v Vittsjö W 2–2
  • 13 Sep · H v Hammarby W 0–3

Häcken W

WWWWW
  • 18 Oct · H v Hammarby W 3–0
  • 4 Oct · H v Uppsala W 9–0
  • 26 Sep · A v Norrköping W 6–0
  • 19 Sep · A v Eskilstuna United W 3–0
  • 13 Sep · H v Vittsjö W 4–0

Head-to-head

Växjö W 0 · draws 0 · Häcken W 5, 4.4 goals a game

  • 20 May 2026 · Häcken W 4–2 Växjö W (Damallsvenskan)
  • 17 Aug 2025 · Växjö W 0–5 Häcken W (Damallsvenskan)
  • 19 Apr 2025 · Häcken W 3–1 Växjö W (Damallsvenskan)
  • 30 Sep 2024 · Häcken W 4–0 Växjö W (Damallsvenskan)
  • 8 May 2024 · Växjö W 0–3 Häcken W (Damallsvenskan)

Likely scores

Växjö W down, Häcken W across
012345
01%3%7%11%13%12%
10%1%3%4%5%4%
20%0%0%1%1%1%
30%0%0%0%0%0%
40%0%0%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 0–4 13%, 0–5 12%, 0–3 11%.

Team news

Rest: Växjö W 6 days, Häcken W 5 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

1 version
  1. Version 1 Fri 00:01, scheduled
    First published. Recorded in the public ledger.