Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina

Universidad de Chile

21:00

Everton de Vina

Mon 26 Oct, 21:00 Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos Franco Esteban Jimenez Lazo Match of the day: fully open

Bets on this match

Best expected value first, at the best price we found

Match resultHome winValue

Us 62%Books 58% Edge +3.2 pts Best odds 1.70 (Betano) Expected return +4.7%

Our 62% beats the market's 58% (2.4× our uncertainty).

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 84%Books 83% Best odds 1.18 (Betano)
Corners O/U 8.5Over 8.5 corners

Us 69%Books 70% Best odds 1.36 (Betano)
Cards O/U 4.5Over 4.5 cards

Us 66%Books 65% Best odds 1.45 (Betano)
Goals O/U 2.5Over 2.5 goals

Us 63%Books 62% Best odds 1.57 (Betano)

Our pick: Home win

Value

Home win

62%

Bookmakers 58%

Draw

20%

Bookmakers 22%

Away win

18%

Bookmakers 20%

Us 62%Bookmakers 58% Edge +3.2 pts Uncertainty ±1.4%

Value: our 62% beats the market's 58% (2.4× our uncertainty). Match simulator (10,000 simulated games per match)

Why

Home win: 62% against a market price of 58% (+3.2%).
Expected goals Universidad de Chile 2.48 – 0.93 Everton de Vina.
Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 72% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
Home advantage in this league (+37% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.
Current form (Elo gap +115 for Universidad de Chile, Universidad de Chile creating +35% xG lately, Everton de Vina creating +28% xG lately) adds 1.4 pts to home win.
Rest days (Universidad de Chile 14, Everton de Vina 14) adds 1.3 pts to home win.
Universidad de Chile missing 1.5 regular starters; Everton de Vina missing 0.5 regular starters adds 0.9 pts to home win.
Tagged Value: our 62% beats the market's 58% (2.4× our uncertainty).
What changed since v1:
Triggered by Confirmed lineups released: Universidad de Chile 4-2-3-1, Everton de Vina 4-4-1-1.
Our probabilities: Home win 59% → 62% (+2.8 pts); Draw 22% → 20% (-1.6 pts); Away win 19% → 18% (-1.2 pts).
Market (de-vigged): Draw 23% → 22%; Away win 19% → 20%.
Tag changed from Avoid to Value.

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win

Home advantage

2.8

Form

1.4

Rest days

1.3

Missing regular starters

0.9

Universidad de Chile attack

0.7

Universidad de Chile defence

0.4

Everton de Vina defence

-0.2

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market we have a call on

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict. Markets we would not touch are left out.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Model view 68%

No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±4.7%

Over 7.5 shots on target: 68%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
Expected shots on target: Universidad de Chile 5.6, Everton de Vina 3.5 — 9.1 in total against a line of 7.5.
Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±4.7%.
Home advantage in this league (+27% shots on target at home) adds 14.6 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
Universidad de Chile's shots on target for (1.18× the league rate) adds 10.4 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
Universidad de Chile's shots on target conceded (0.85× the league rate against) takes 6.6 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
Everton de Vina's shots on target conceded (0.95× the league rate against) takes 3.4 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
Tagged Model view: 68% likely, uncertainty ±4.7%; no bookmaker price to compare.

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Elo rating Universidad de Chile 1645, Everton de Vina 1530. Our model reads recent xG for and against, Elo and these meetings before kickoff; the reasons above show how much each moved the numbers.