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FC Seoul
07:30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Sun 18 Oct, 07:30 Seoul World Cup Stadium Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Away win

Upset Watch
Home win
49%
Bookmakers 62%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 21%
Away win
23%
Bookmakers 16%
Us 23%Bookmakers 16% Edge +7.2 pts Uncertainty ±2.2%

Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market.

Why

  • Away win: 23% against a market price of 16% (+7.2%).
  • Expected goals FC Seoul 1.08 – 0.98 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±4.3%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Rest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 1.8 pts to away win.
  • FC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.
  • FC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from away win.
  • Home advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market.

What moved the number

Points of probability for away win
Rest days
1.8
FC Seoul attack
-1.4
FC Seoul defence
-1.0
Home advantage
-0.7
Missing regular starters
-0.7
Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence
0.4

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of away win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Not both teams score Both teams to score Value 50%
Bookmakers 45% at 2.05, edge +5.5 pts, uncertainty ±1.8%
  • Not both teams score: 50% against a market price of 45% (+5.5%).
  • Expected goals FC Seoul 1.08 – 0.98 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±4.4%), so it carries 40% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from not both teams score.
  • Rest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 0.8 pts to not both teams score.
  • FC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to not both teams score.
  • Home advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.6 pts from not both teams score.
  • Tagged Value: our 50% beats the market's 45%.

Goals

Under 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Upset Watch 25%
Bookmakers 18% at 4.46, edge +6.6 pts, uncertainty ±1.7%
  • Under 1.5 goals: 25% against a market price of 18% (+6.6%).
  • Expected goals FC Seoul 1.08 – 0.98 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±4.4%), so it carries 39% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from under 1.5 goals.
  • Rest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 1.1 pts to under 1.5 goals.
  • Home advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from under 1.5 goals.
  • FC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to under 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.6% too long by the market.
Under 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Value 49%
Bookmakers 41% at 2.24, edge +7.7 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Under 2.5 goals: 49% against a market price of 41% (+7.7%).
  • Expected goals FC Seoul 1.08 – 0.98 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 66% (uncertainty ±5.1%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from under 2.5 goals.
  • Rest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 0.9 pts to under 2.5 goals.
  • Home advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.6 pts from under 2.5 goals.
  • FC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to under 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Value: our 49% beats the market's 41%.
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Banker 69%
Bookmakers 64% at 1.48, edge +5.8 pts, uncertainty ±0.8%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 69% against a market price of 64% (+5.8%).
  • Expected goals FC Seoul 1.08 – 0.98 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 85% (uncertainty ±3.6%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Rest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 0.5 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 69% likely, uncertainty only ±0.8%, market agrees.

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Banker 69%
Bookmakers 69% at 1.36, edge +0.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.1%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 69% against a market price of 69% (+0.8%).
  • Expected corners: FC Seoul 4.6, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.0 — 8.5 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 74% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's corners conceded (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • FC Seoul's corners for (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+10% corners at home) takes 0.6 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's corners conceded (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 69% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Avoid 54%
Bookmakers 56% at 1.68, edge -1.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 54% against a market price of 56% (-1.8%).
  • Expected corners: FC Seoul 4.6, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.0 — 8.5 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's corners for (1.10× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+10% corners at home) adds 0.9 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • FC Seoul's corners conceded (0.90× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's corners conceded (0.93× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).
Under 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Avoid 58%
Bookmakers 56% at 1.65, edge +1.2 pts, uncertainty ±1.2%
  • Under 9.5 corners: 58% against a market price of 56% (+1.2%).
  • Expected corners: FC Seoul 4.6, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.0 — 8.5 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • FC Seoul's corners for (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from under 9.5 corners.
  • FC Seoul's corners conceded (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to under 9.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+10% corners at home) takes 0.7 pts from under 9.5 corners.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's corners conceded (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to under 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.2%).

Cards

Over 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 50%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±11.8%
  • Over 3.5 cards: 50%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: FC Seoul 1.6, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.1 — 3.7 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±11.8%.
  • Match context (table stakes for FC Seoul) takes 5.6 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Home advantage in this league (-10% cards at home) takes 3.4 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • FC Seoul's cards conceded (1.08× the league rate against) adds 3.4 pts to over 3.5 cards.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's cards conceded (0.94× the league rate against) takes 1.8 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Avoid 68%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.8%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 68%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: FC Seoul 1.6, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.1 — 3.7 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.8%.
  • Match context (table stakes for FC Seoul) adds 5.4 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Home advantage in this league (-10% cards at home) adds 3.3 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • FC Seoul's cards conceded (1.08× the league rate against) takes 3.1 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's cards conceded (0.94× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Avoid 82%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.0%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 82%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: FC Seoul 1.6, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.1 — 3.7 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.0%.
  • Match context (table stakes for FC Seoul) adds 4.3 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Home advantage in this league (-10% cards at home) adds 2.6 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • FC Seoul's cards conceded (1.08× the league rate against) takes 2.4 pts from under 5.5 cards.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's cards conceded (0.94× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 64%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±14.3%
  • Over 20.5 fouls: 64%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: FC Seoul 10.4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 12.5 — 22.8 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±14.3%.
  • Match context (table stakes for FC Seoul) takes 8.9 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Home advantage in this league (-7% fouls at home) takes 4.7 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's fouls for (1.03× the league rate) adds 2.1 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • FC Seoul's fouls for (0.97× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 50%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±15.9%
  • Under 22.5 fouls: 50%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: FC Seoul 10.4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 12.5 — 22.8 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±15.9%.
  • Match context (table stakes for FC Seoul) adds 10.0 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Home advantage in this league (-7% fouls at home) adds 5.1 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's fouls for (1.03× the league rate) takes 2.2 pts from under 22.5 fouls.
  • FC Seoul's fouls for (0.97× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 64%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±14.8%
  • Under 24.5 fouls: 64%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: FC Seoul 10.4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 12.5 — 22.8 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±14.8%.
  • Match context (table stakes for FC Seoul) adds 9.9 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Home advantage in this league (-7% fouls at home) adds 5.0 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's fouls for (1.03× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from under 24.5 fouls.
  • FC Seoul's fouls for (0.97× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Avoid 58%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.9%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 58%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: FC Seoul 14.0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 10.3 — 24.3 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots at home) adds 12.1 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • FC Seoul's shots conceded (0.88× the league rate against) takes 7.7 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • FC Seoul's shots for (1.10× the league rate) adds 7.4 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's shots conceded (0.95× the league rate against) takes 4.3 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 54%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.2%
  • Under 24.5 shots: 54%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: FC Seoul 14.0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 10.3 — 24.3 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.2%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots at home) takes 11.9 pts from under 24.5 shots.
  • FC Seoul's shots conceded (0.88× the league rate against) adds 8.2 pts to under 24.5 shots.
  • FC Seoul's shots for (1.10× the league rate) takes 7.5 pts from under 24.5 shots.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's shots conceded (0.95× the league rate against) adds 4.4 pts to under 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 66%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.3%
  • Under 26.5 shots: 66%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: FC Seoul 14.0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 10.3 — 24.3 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.3%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+17% shots at home) takes 10.8 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • FC Seoul's shots conceded (0.88× the league rate against) adds 7.9 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • FC Seoul's shots for (1.10× the league rate) takes 7.0 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's shots conceded (0.95× the league rate against) adds 4.2 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Avoid 62%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.5%
  • Over 7.5 shots on target: 62%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: FC Seoul 5.1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.6 — 8.6 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.5%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% shots on target at home) adds 9.8 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • FC Seoul's shots on target for (1.13× the league rate) adds 7.2 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • FC Seoul's shots on target conceded (0.89× the league rate against) takes 4.8 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's shots on target conceded (0.96× the league rate against) takes 2.1 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Avoid 51%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.2%
  • Under 8.5 shots on target: 51%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: FC Seoul 5.1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.6 — 8.6 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.2%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% shots on target at home) takes 10.1 pts from under 8.5 shots on target.
  • FC Seoul's shots on target for (1.13× the league rate) takes 7.5 pts from under 8.5 shots on target.
  • FC Seoul's shots on target conceded (0.89× the league rate against) adds 5.2 pts to under 8.5 shots on target.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's shots on target conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 2.3 pts to under 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Avoid 63%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.4%
  • Under 9.5 shots on target: 63%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: FC Seoul 5.1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.6 — 8.6 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.4%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% shots on target at home) takes 9.4 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • FC Seoul's shots on target for (1.13× the league rate) takes 7.1 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • FC Seoul's shots on target conceded (0.89× the league rate against) adds 5.1 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC's shots on target conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 2.2 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Likely scores

FC Seoul down, Gimcheon Sangmu FC across
012345
014%12%6%2%0%0%
113%14%7%2%1%0%
27%7%4%1%0%0%
33%3%1%0%0%0%
41%1%0%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–1 14%, 0–0 14%, 1–0 13%.

Team news

Rest: FC Seoul 4 days, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

1 version
  1. Version 1 Sun 01:15, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.