Skip to content
Trosbet
Feed live

Your colour

Mode

Saved on this device
Sign in Join free
São Bernardo
19:00
Criciuma
Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 Estadio Primeiro de Maio Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Upset Watch
Home win
35%
Bookmakers 28%
Draw
30%
Bookmakers 30%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 41%
Us 35%Bookmakers 28% Edge +6.2 pts Uncertainty ±2.2%

Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.2% too long by the market.

Why

  • Home win: 35% against a market price of 28% (+6.2%).
  • Expected goals São Bernardo 1.31 – 0.89 Criciuma.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.0 pts to home win.
  • Criciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.9 pts from home win.
  • São Bernardo's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.
  • Rest days (São Bernardo 7, Criciuma 6) adds 0.7 pts to home win.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.2% too long by the market.
  • What changed since v2:
  • Triggered by Match result market moved: home 31% → 28%, draw 31% → 30%, away 38% → 41%; Goals O/U 1.5 market moved: over 65% → 69%, under 35% → 31%.
  • Our probabilities: Home win 36% → 35% (-1.6 pts); Away win 34% → 35% (+1.9 pts).
  • Market (de-vigged): Home win 31% → 28%; Draw 31% → 30%; Away win 38% → 41%.

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
4.0
Criciuma defence
-1.9
São Bernardo attack
0.9
Rest days
0.7
Missing regular starters
0.5
Criciuma attack
0.1

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Not both teams score Both teams to score Avoid 55%
Bookmakers 52% at 1.78, edge +2.7 pts, uncertainty ±1.8%
  • Not both teams score: 55% against a market price of 52% (+2.7%).
  • Expected goals São Bernardo 1.31 – 0.89 Criciuma.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±4.0%), so it carries 46% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) takes 3.2 pts from not both teams score.
  • Criciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to not both teams score.
  • São Bernardo's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from not both teams score.
  • Rest days (São Bernardo 7, Criciuma 6) adds 0.3 pts to not both teams score.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.7%).

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Avoid 67%
Bookmakers 69% at 1.38, edge -1.9 pts, uncertainty ±1.7%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 67% against a market price of 69% (-1.9%).
  • Expected goals São Bernardo 1.31 – 0.89 Criciuma.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±4.1%), so it carries 42% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.0 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Criciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.8 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • São Bernardo's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).
Under 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Avoid 60%
Bookmakers 59% at 1.61, edge +0.9 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Under 2.5 goals: 60% against a market price of 59% (+0.9%).
  • Expected goals São Bernardo 1.31 – 0.89 Criciuma.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 62% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) takes 2.5 pts from under 2.5 goals.
  • Criciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to under 2.5 goals.
  • São Bernardo's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from under 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Banker 80%
Bookmakers 80% at 1.19, edge +0.2 pts, uncertainty ±0.8%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 80% against a market price of 80% (+0.2%).
  • Expected goals São Bernardo 1.31 – 0.89 Criciuma.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 81% (uncertainty ±5.1%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) takes 1.1 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Criciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 80% likely, uncertainty only ±0.8%, market agrees.

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Avoid 53%
Bookmakers 51% at 1.81, edge +1.3 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 53% against a market price of 51% (+1.3%).
  • Expected corners: São Bernardo 5.0, Criciuma 5.1 — 10.1 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 57% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+32% corners at home) takes 2.7 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Criciuma's corners conceded (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • Criciuma's corners for (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • São Bernardo's corners conceded (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.3%).
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Avoid 71%
Bookmakers 74% at 1.26, edge -2.9 pts, uncertainty ±1.6%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 71% against a market price of 74% (-2.9%).
  • Expected corners: São Bernardo 5.0, Criciuma 5.1 — 10.1 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 62% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+32% corners at home) adds 3.2 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Criciuma's corners conceded (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Criciuma's corners for (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • São Bernardo's corners conceded (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).
Over 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Avoid 59%
Bookmakers 62% at 1.52, edge -2.5 pts, uncertainty ±1.7%
  • Over 9.5 corners: 59% against a market price of 62% (-2.5%).
  • Expected corners: São Bernardo 5.0, Criciuma 5.1 — 10.1 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+32% corners at home) adds 3.5 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Criciuma's corners conceded (0.87× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from over 9.5 corners.
  • Criciuma's corners for (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • São Bernardo's corners conceded (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).

Cards

Over 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 71%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.0%
  • Over 3.5 cards: 71%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: São Bernardo 2.3, Criciuma 2.6 — 4.9 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.0%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-9% cards at home) takes 3.0 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • São Bernardo's cards conceded (0.93× the league rate against) takes 2.6 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • São Bernardo's cards for (0.96× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Criciuma's cards conceded (0.98× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Avoid 52%
Bookmakers 52% at 1.80, edge +0.3 pts, uncertainty ±1.1%
  • Over 4.5 cards: 52% against a market price of 52% (+0.3%).
  • Expected cards: São Bernardo 2.3, Criciuma 2.6 — 4.9 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±11.1%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (-9% cards at home) takes 0.4 pts from over 4.5 cards.
  • São Bernardo's cards conceded (0.93× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from over 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.3%).
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Avoid 63%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±11.5%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 63%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: São Bernardo 2.3, Criciuma 2.6 — 4.9 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±11.5%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-9% cards at home) adds 3.8 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • São Bernardo's cards conceded (0.93× the league rate against) adds 3.1 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • São Bernardo's cards for (0.96× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Referee Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos (+1% cards per game vs league average) takes 1.5 pts from under 5.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 78%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.7%
  • Over 20.5 fouls: 78%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: São Bernardo 12.3, Criciuma 12.6 — 24.9 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.7%.
  • São Bernardo's fouls for (0.92× the league rate) takes 4.9 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Referee Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos (-3% fouls per game vs league average) takes 4.8 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • São Bernardo's fouls conceded (0.93× the league rate against) takes 4.3 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Home advantage in this league (+5% fouls at home) adds 3.1 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 65%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±13.2%
  • Over 22.5 fouls: 65%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: São Bernardo 12.3, Criciuma 12.6 — 24.9 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±13.2%.
  • São Bernardo's fouls for (0.92× the league rate) takes 6.4 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • São Bernardo's fouls conceded (0.93× the league rate against) takes 5.6 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • Referee Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos (-3% fouls per game vs league average) takes 5.6 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • Home advantage in this league (+5% fouls at home) adds 3.9 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 51%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±14.1%
  • Over 24.5 fouls: 51%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: São Bernardo 12.3, Criciuma 12.6 — 24.9 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±14.1%.
  • São Bernardo's fouls for (0.92× the league rate) takes 7.2 pts from over 24.5 fouls.
  • São Bernardo's fouls conceded (0.93× the league rate against) takes 6.4 pts from over 24.5 fouls.
  • Referee Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos (-3% fouls per game vs league average) takes 5.6 pts from over 24.5 fouls.
  • Home advantage in this league (+5% fouls at home) adds 4.2 pts to over 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Avoid 66%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±6.9%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 66%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: São Bernardo 13.6, Criciuma 12.4 — 26.0 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±6.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+33% shots at home) adds 19.0 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Criciuma's shots conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 5.9 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • São Bernardo's shots conceded (1.06× the league rate against) adds 3.4 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • São Bernardo's shots for (0.98× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 55%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.4%
  • Over 24.5 shots: 55%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: São Bernardo 13.6, Criciuma 12.4 — 26.0 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.4%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+33% shots at home) adds 19.7 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Criciuma's shots conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 6.7 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • São Bernardo's shots conceded (1.06× the league rate against) adds 3.8 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • São Bernardo's shots for (0.98× the league rate) takes 1.7 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 56%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.1%
  • Under 26.5 shots: 56%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: São Bernardo 13.6, Criciuma 12.4 — 26.0 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.1%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+33% shots at home) takes 18.7 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • Criciuma's shots conceded (0.91× the league rate against) adds 7.0 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • São Bernardo's shots conceded (1.06× the league rate against) takes 3.8 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • São Bernardo's shots for (0.98× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Under 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Avoid 52%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.6%
  • Under 7.5 shots on target: 52%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: São Bernardo 4.3, Criciuma 3.3 — 7.6 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.6%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+33% shots on target at home) takes 15.3 pts from under 7.5 shots on target.
  • Criciuma's shots on target conceded (0.85× the league rate against) adds 9.8 pts to under 7.5 shots on target.
  • São Bernardo's shots on target for (1.06× the league rate) takes 3.3 pts from under 7.5 shots on target.
  • Criciuma's shots on target for (0.95× the league rate) adds 2.5 pts to under 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Banker 66%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.3%
  • Under 8.5 shots on target: 66%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: São Bernardo 4.3, Criciuma 3.3 — 7.6 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.3%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+33% shots on target at home) takes 13.6 pts from under 8.5 shots on target.
  • Criciuma's shots on target conceded (0.85× the league rate against) adds 9.7 pts to under 8.5 shots on target.
  • São Bernardo's shots on target for (1.06× the league rate) takes 3.2 pts from under 8.5 shots on target.
  • Criciuma's shots on target for (0.95× the league rate) adds 2.4 pts to under 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Banker: 66% likely, uncertainty only ±5.3% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Under 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Banker 76%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±4.3%
  • Under 9.5 shots on target: 76%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: São Bernardo 4.3, Criciuma 3.3 — 7.6 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±4.3%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+33% shots on target at home) takes 10.8 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Criciuma's shots on target conceded (0.85× the league rate against) adds 8.6 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • São Bernardo's shots on target for (1.06× the league rate) takes 2.7 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Criciuma's shots on target for (0.95× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Banker: 76% likely, uncertainty only ±4.3% (no bookmaker price to compare).

Likely scores

São Bernardo down, Criciuma across
012345
011%10%4%1%0%0%
115%12%6%2%0%0%
29%8%4%1%0%0%
34%4%2%0%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–0 15%, 1–1 12%, 0–0 11%.

Team news

Referee: Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos, +1% cards and -3% fouls per game against the league average.

Rest: São Bernardo 7 days, Criciuma 6 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

3 versions
  1. Version 3 Sun 13:54, event: odds moved
    • Triggered by Match result market moved: home 31% → 28%, draw 31% → 30%, away 38% → 41%; Goals O/U 1.5 market moved: over 65% → 69%, under 35% → 31%.
    • Our probabilities: Home win 36% → 35% (-1.6 pts); Away win 34% → 35% (+1.9 pts).
    • Market (de-vigged): Home win 31% → 28%; Draw 31% → 30%; Away win 38% → 41%.
  2. Version 2 Sun 04:02, scheduled
    • Our probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.7 pts); Away win 35% → 34% (-1.4 pts).
  3. Version 1 Sun 01:18, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.

Events we caught

  • Sun 13:53 Goals O/U 1.5 market moved: over 65% → 69%, under 35% → 31% New version published
  • Sun 13:53 Match result market moved: home 31% → 28%, draw 31% → 30%, away 38% → 41% New version published
  • Fri 06:18 Referee assigned: Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos Skipped