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FC Copenhagen
18:00
Odense
Mon 26 Oct, 18:00 Parken Stadium Svendsen·Frederik Match of the day: fully open

Bets on this match

Best expected value first, at the best price we found
  • Match resultHome winBanker
    Us 70%Books 68% Edge +1.9 pts Best odds 1.45 (Pinnacle) Expected return +1.0%
    70% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, and +1.9% better than the market.

Our pick: Home win

Banker
Home win
70%
Bookmakers 68%
Draw
18%
Bookmakers 19%
Away win
12%
Bookmakers 13%
Us 70%Bookmakers 68% Edge +1.9 pts Uncertainty ±1.2%

Banker: 70% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, and +1.9% better than the market. Match simulator (10,000 simulated games per match)

Why

  • Home win: 70% against a market price of 68% (+1.9%).
  • Expected goals FC Copenhagen 2.73 – 0.82 Odense.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 76% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Current form (Elo gap +226 for FC Copenhagen, FC Copenhagen creating +29% xG lately) adds 3.9 pts to home win.
  • Home advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.
  • Rest days (FC Copenhagen 4, Odense 8) adds 1.4 pts to home win.
  • FC Copenhagen's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.
  • Tagged Banker: 70% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, and +1.9% better than the market.
  • What changed since v1:
  • Our probabilities: Home win 68% → 70% (+1.3 pts); Away win 13% → 12% (-1.0 pts).
  • Market (de-vigged): Home win 67% → 68%; Away win 14% → 13%.

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Form
3.9
Home advantage
1.7
Rest days
1.4
FC Copenhagen attack
0.5
Missing regular starters
0.3
FC Copenhagen defence
0.1

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Elo rating FC Copenhagen 1717, Odense 1491. Our model reads recent xG for and against, Elo and these meetings before kickoff; the reasons above show how much each moved the numbers.

FC Copenhagen

DDWLW
  • 22 Oct · A v FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 (xG 0.53–0.78)
  • 18 Oct · H v Aarhus 1–1 (xG 2.07–0.88)
  • 15 Oct · H v SC Braga 3–0 (xG 1.56–0.55)
  • 11 Oct · A v FC Midtjylland 1–2 (xG 1.67–1.62)
  • 20 Sep · A v Brondby 1–0 (xG 2.27–0.71)

Odense

WDDWL
  • 18 Oct · H v Brondby 2–1 (xG 0.78–2.58)
  • 9 Oct · A v FC Nordsjaelland 0–0 (xG 0.50–2.16)
  • 19 Sep · H v FC Midtjylland 1–1
  • 13 Sep · A v Randers FC 2–1 (xG 1.14–1.68)
  • 6 Sep · H v FC Copenhagen 0–5 (xG 2.18–2.84)

Head-to-head

FC Copenhagen 2 · draws 2 · Odense 1, 3.4 goals a game

  • 6 Sep 2026 · Odense 0–5 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
  • 22 Apr 2026 · FC Copenhagen 2–1 Odense (Superliga)
  • 15 Mar 2026 · Odense 2–1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
  • 21 Feb 2026 · Odense 2–2 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
  • 23 Aug 2025 · FC Copenhagen 1–1 Odense (Superliga)

Likely scores

FC Copenhagen down, Odense across
012345
04%2%1%0%0%0%
17%7%3%1%0%0%
211%9%4%1%0%0%
310%8%3%1%0%0%
47%5%2%1%0%0%
54%3%1%0%0%0%

Most likely: 2–0 11%, 3–0 10%, 2–1 9%.

Team news

Referee: Svendsen·Frederik, +0% cards and -1% fouls per game against the league average.

Rest: FC Copenhagen 4 days, Odense 8 days.

FC Copenhagen 4-2-3-1 (B. Svensson)

D. Ramaj, F. Beijmo, A. Sørensen, A. Markgráf, M. Elyounoussi, A. Cornelius, M. López, Robert, M. Emil Madsen, A. Král, W. Clem

Odense 4-2-3-1 (T. Thomasberg)

Julian Andreas Pauli, F. Ulvestad, R. Falk, T. Keskinen, J. Berthel Askou, C. Gammelgaard, M. McCoy, V. Myhra, N. Ganaus, I. Ouédraogo, Magnus Hvitfeldt Andersen

Out or doubtful

  • A. Král (FC Copenhagen): missing fixture, inactive
  • T. Maseko (FC Copenhagen): missing fixture, inactive
  • M. Mattsson (FC Copenhagen): missing fixture, knee injury
  • J. Niemiec (Odense): missing fixture, knee injury
  • P. Therkildsen (Odense): missing fixture, injury
  • W. Martin (Odense): missing fixture, knee injury

Why it changed

2 versions
  1. Version 2 Mon 13:00, scheduled
    • Our probabilities: Home win 68% → 70% (+1.3 pts); Away win 13% → 12% (-1.0 pts).
    • Market (de-vigged): Home win 67% → 68%; Away win 14% → 13%.
  2. Version 1 Sat 01:18, ahead
    First published. Recorded in the public ledger.

Events we caught

  • Mon 17:40 Confirmed lineups released: Odense 4-2-3-1, FC Copenhagen 4-2-3-1 New version published
  • Sat 05:15 P. Therkildsen (Odense) ruled out: Injury New version published
  • Sat 05:15 J. Niemiec (Odense) ruled out: Knee Injury New version published
  • Sat 05:15 W. Martin (Odense) ruled out: Knee Injury New version published
  • Sat 05:15 M. Mattsson (FC Copenhagen) ruled out: Knee Injury New version published
  • Sat 05:15 T. Maseko (FC Copenhagen) ruled out: Inactive New version published
  • Sat 05:15 A. Kral (FC Copenhagen) ruled out: Inactive New version published
  • Sat 04:41 Referee assigned: Svendsen·Frederik New version published