Sporting Cristal
20:30
Alianza Lima
Thu 29 Oct, 20:30
Estadio Alberto Gallardo
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 76%Books 74% Best odds 1.29 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
39%
Bookmakers 40%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
34%
Bookmakers 32%
Us 39%Bookmakers 40%
Edge -0.6 pts
Uncertainty ±2.5%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 39% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 39% against a market price of 40% (-0.6%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsSporting Cristal
LWWWW
- 24 Oct · A v Cusco 1–3 (xG 1.31–2.16)
- 18 Oct · H v Comerciantes Unidos 4–2 (xG 1.55–2.21)
- 11 Oct · A v UTC Cajamarca 1–0 (xG 0.75–0.75)
- 19 Sep · H v Atletico Grau 3–1 (xG 2.08–0.99)
- 13 Sep · A v UCV Moquegua 2–1
Alianza Lima
WWWWL
- 25 Oct · A v UCV Moquegua 1–0 (xG 2.11–0.62)
- 18 Oct · H v Atletico Grau 3–1 (xG 1.64–0.57)
- 11 Oct · A v Cusco 2–1 (xG 0.84–0.27)
- 19 Sep · H v ADT 2–0
- 13 Sep · H v Universitario 1–2 (xG 1.81–1.15)
Head-to-head
Sporting Cristal 0 · draws 5 · Alianza Lima 1, 2.2 goals a game
- 10 May 2026 · Alianza Lima 1–1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 7 Dec 2025 · Alianza Lima 3–3 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 3 Dec 2025 · Sporting Cristal 1–1 Alianza Lima (Primera División)
- 6 Aug 2025 · Alianza Lima 0–0 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2 Mar 2025 · Sporting Cristal 1–2 Alianza Lima (Primera División)
- 18 Aug 2024 · Sporting Cristal 0–0 Alianza Lima (Primera División)