Atletico Nacional
23:10
Independiente Medellin
Sun 25 Oct, 23:10
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
54%
Bookmakers 53%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
20%
Bookmakers 22%
Us 54%Bookmakers 53%
Edge +1.7 pts
Uncertainty ±2.0%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 54% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.7% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 54% against a market price of 53% (+1.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAtletico Nacional
LWDWD
- 20 Oct · A v Cucuta 0–1 (xG 0.94–0.38)
- 17 Oct · A v Chico 4–1 (xG 1.23–1.27)
- 8 Oct · H v Deportes Tolima 0–0
- 1 Oct · H v Junior 3–1
- 25 Sep · H v Millonarios 1–1
Independiente Medellin
LWLDL
- 18 Oct · H v Once Caldas 0–2 (xG 0.42–0.61)
- 12 Oct · A v America de Cali 2–1 (xG 0.94–0.60)
- 6 Oct · H v Santa Fe 0–1
- 30 Sep · H v Millonarios 2–2
- 27 Sep · A v Junior 0–2
Head-to-head
Atletico Nacional 3 · draws 3 · Independiente Medellin 0, 3.8 goals a game
- 12 Apr 2026 · Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico Nacional (Primera A)
- 4 Dec 2025 · Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 23 Nov 2025 · Independiente Medellin 0–0 Atletico Nacional (Primera A)
- 26 Oct 2025 · Atletico Nacional 5–2 Independiente Medellin (Primera A)
- 7 Sep 2025 · Independiente Medellin 3–3 Atletico Nacional (Primera A)
- 4 May 2025 · Independiente Medellin 1–1 Atletico Nacional (Primera A)