AC Milan
17:30
Bologna
Wed 28 Oct, 17:30
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Juan Luca Sacchi
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 78%Books 76% Best odds 1.28 (Pinnacle)
Match result: no bet
Home win
58%
Bookmakers 59%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
19%
Bookmakers 17%
Us 58%Bookmakers 59%
Edge -0.9 pts
Uncertainty ±1.7%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 58% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 58% against a market price of 59% (-0.9%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAC Milan
WLWWD
- 25 Oct · A v Udinese 2–0 (xG 3.15–0.46)
- 22 Oct · A v Bournemouth 0–3 (xG 0.17–3.22)
- 18 Oct · H v Atalanta 3–2 (xG 2.49–1.71)
- 15 Oct · A v Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 (xG 3.83–0.86)
- 11 Oct · A v Sassuolo 1–1 (xG 1.18–1.19)
Bologna
WLWDL
- 24 Oct · A v Cagliari 2–0 (xG 1.64–0.44)
- 17 Oct · H v Inter 1–3 (xG 1.09–3.22)
- 11 Oct · A v Lecce 2–1 (xG 2.00–1.49)
- 19 Sep · H v Torino 1–1 (xG 0.92–1.14)
- 13 Sep · A v Napoli 0–1 (xG 0.29–1.19)
Head-to-head
AC Milan 3 · draws 0 · Bologna 1, 2.8 goals a game
- 3 Feb 2026 · Bologna 0–3 AC Milan (Serie A)
- 14 Sep 2025 · AC Milan 1–0 Bologna (Serie A)
- 9 May 2025 · AC Milan 3–1 Bologna (Serie A)
- 27 Feb 2025 · Bologna 2–1 AC Milan (Serie A)