Fiorentina
19:45
Atalanta
Thu 29 Oct, 19:45
Stadio Artemio Franchi
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 82%Books 82% Best odds 1.21 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
40%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
25%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 31%
Us 40%Bookmakers 43%
Edge -3.3 pts
Uncertainty ±1.9%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 40% against a market price of 43% (-3.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsFiorentina
LLLDW
- 25 Oct · A v Inter 1–2 (xG 0.25–2.94)
- 18 Oct · H v Como 1–3 (xG 2.33–1.83)
- 10 Oct · A v Genoa 1–2 (xG 0.82–1.46)
- 20 Sep · H v Napoli 1–1 (xG 1.14–1.40)
- 11 Sep · A v Venezia 4–2 (xG 3.31–0.49)
Atalanta
DLLWW
- 25 Oct · H v Frosinone 4–4 (xG 3.89–1.81)
- 22 Oct · A v Ajax 0–2 (xG 0.97–1.78)
- 18 Oct · A v AC Milan 2–3 (xG 1.71–2.49)
- 15 Oct · H v Pafos 3–1 (xG 3.47–0.91)
- 12 Oct · H v Venezia 3–1 (xG 2.26–2.54)
Head-to-head
Fiorentina 1 · draws 1 · Atalanta 2, 2.5 goals a game
- 22 May 2026 · Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 30 Nov 2025 · Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 30 Mar 2025 · Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 15 Sep 2024 · Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina (Serie A)