Frosinone
17:30
Lecce
Thu 29 Oct, 17:30
PSC Arena
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 86%Books 86% Best odds 1.15 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
58%
Bookmakers 57%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 23%
Away win
20%
Bookmakers 20%
Us 58%Bookmakers 57%
Edge +1.1 pts
Uncertainty ±3.1%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 58% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.1% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 58% against a market price of 57% (+1.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsFrosinone
DWLWD
- 25 Oct · A v Atalanta 4–4 (xG 1.81–3.89)
- 16 Oct · H v Sassuolo 4–2 (xG 2.12–1.94)
- 10 Oct · A v Napoli 0–3 (xG 1.01–3.12)
- 20 Sep · H v Como 2–0 (xG 2.18–2.12)
- 12 Sep · A v Genoa 1–1 (xG 1.93–1.88)
Lecce
LWLLW
- 25 Oct · H v Juventus 0–2 (xG 1.02–1.13)
- 18 Oct · A v Udinese 3–0 (xG 3.45–0.63)
- 11 Oct · H v Bologna 1–2 (xG 1.49–2.00)
- 20 Sep · A v AC Milan 0–3 (xG 0.21–2.19)
- 13 Sep · H v Monza 3–2 (xG 1.08–2.79)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.