Monza
19:45
Napoli
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
24%
Bookmakers 21%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
52%
Bookmakers 55%
Us 52%Bookmakers 55%
Edge -2.3 pts
Uncertainty ±4.0%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 52% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 52% against a market price of 55% (-2.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMonza
LWLWL
- 23 Oct · A v Torino 2–3 (xG 0.68–1.40)
- 19 Oct · H v Cagliari 4–0 (xG 2.10–2.11)
- 11 Oct · A v Lazio 1–3 (xG 1.84–1.84)
- 18 Sep · H v Sassuolo 2–1 (xG 1.51–1.47)
- 13 Sep · A v Lecce 2–3 (xG 2.79–1.08)
Napoli
DWLLW
- 24 Oct · H v AS Roma 3–3 (xG 2.51–1.96)
- 20 Oct · H v Bodo/Glimt 4–3 (xG 1.57–2.69)
- 17 Oct · A v Venezia 0–1 (xG 2.46–0.67)
- 13 Oct · A v Villarreal 1–3 (xG 1.70–1.24)
- 10 Oct · H v Frosinone 3–0 (xG 3.12–1.01)
Head-to-head
Monza 0 · draws 0 · Napoli 2, 1.5 goals a game
- 19 Apr 2025 · Monza 0–1 Napoli (Serie A)
- 29 Sep 2024 · Napoli 2–0 Monza (Serie A)