Monza
19:45
Napoli
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
Stadio Brianteo
Giovanni Ayroldi
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 81%Books 79% Best odds 1.25 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
26%
Bookmakers 22%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
51%
Bookmakers 54%
Us 51%Bookmakers 54%
Edge -3.1 pts
Uncertainty ±5.1%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 51% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 51% against a market price of 54% (-3.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMonza
LWLWL
- 23 Oct · A v Torino 2–3 (xG 0.68–1.40)
- 19 Oct · H v Cagliari 4–0 (xG 2.10–2.11)
- 11 Oct · A v Lazio 1–3 (xG 1.84–1.84)
- 18 Sep · H v Sassuolo 2–1 (xG 1.51–1.47)
- 13 Sep · A v Lecce 2–3 (xG 2.79–1.08)
Napoli
DWLLW
- 24 Oct · H v AS Roma 3–3 (xG 2.51–1.96)
- 20 Oct · H v Bodo/Glimt 4–3 (xG 1.57–2.69)
- 17 Oct · A v Venezia 0–1 (xG 2.46–0.67)
- 13 Oct · A v Villarreal 1–3 (xG 1.70–1.24)
- 10 Oct · H v Frosinone 3–0 (xG 3.12–1.01)
Head-to-head
Monza 0 · draws 0 · Napoli 2, 1.5 goals a game
- 19 Apr 2025 · Monza 0–1 Napoli (Serie A)
- 29 Sep 2024 · Napoli 2–0 Monza (Serie A)