Toluca
2–2
Club Tijuana
Thu 22 Oct, 01:00
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Julio Gerardo Garcia Armenta
Our pick: Away win
Upset Watch LostHome win
70%
Bookmakers 77%
Draw
18%
Bookmakers 14%
Away win
12%
Bookmakers 8%
Us 12%Bookmakers 8%
Edge +3.9 pts
Uncertainty ±1.0%
Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market (3.7× our uncertainty).
- Away win: 12% against a market price of 8% (+3.9%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsToluca
DLDLW
- 18 Oct · H v Atletico San Luis 1–1 (xG 0.00–0.00)
- 10 Oct · A v Tigres UANL 2–3 (xG 1.24–1.73)
- 26 Sep · A v Cruz Azul 3–3 (xG 1.95–1.55)
- 21 Sep · H v Santos Laguna 2–3
- 16 Sep · A v Puebla 1–0 (xG 1.95–0.56)
Club Tijuana
DDLDL
- 17 Oct · H v Puebla 0–0 (xG 1.22–0.42)
- 10 Oct · A v FC Juarez 1–1 (xG 1.24–1.34)
- 26 Sep · H v Atlas 2–3
- 21 Sep · A v CF Pachuca 2–2
- 12 Sep · H v Club Queretaro 0–1 (xG 2.03–0.81)
Head-to-head
Toluca 3 · draws 1 · Club Tijuana 0, 2.8 goals a game
- 14 Feb 2026 · Toluca 1–0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 23 Oct 2025 · Club Tijuana 0–0 Toluca (Liga MX)
- 11 Jan 2025 · Club Tijuana 2–4 Toluca (Liga MX)
- 14 Sep 2024 · Toluca 4–0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)