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Helmond Sport
18:00
NAC Breda
Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 Lavans Stadion Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Upset Watch
Home win
26%
Bookmakers 17%
Draw
21%
Bookmakers 19%
Away win
53%
Bookmakers 64%
Us 26%Bookmakers 17% Edge +9.2 pts Uncertainty ±2.8%

Upset Watch: underdog priced 9.2% too long by the market.

Why

  • Home win: 26% against a market price of 17% (+9.2%).
  • Expected goals Helmond Sport 1.71 – 1.65 NAC Breda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 44% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.
  • Helmond Sport's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 2.4 pts from home win.
  • NAC Breda's attack (1.05× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.
  • NAC Breda's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 9.2% too long by the market.
  • What changed since v1:
  • Our probabilities: Home win 24% → 26% (+1.8 pts); Away win 55% → 53% (-2.0 pts).

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
3.6
Helmond Sport attack
-2.4
NAC Breda attack
-0.8
NAC Breda defence
0.8
Helmond Sport defence
-0.6
Missing regular starters
0.1

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Both teams score Both teams to score Banker 63%
Bookmakers 63% at 1.50, edge +0.4 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Both teams score: 63% against a market price of 63% (+0.4%).
  • Expected goals Helmond Sport 1.71 – 1.65 NAC Breda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to both teams score.
  • Helmond Sport's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from both teams score.
  • NAC Breda's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to both teams score.
  • NAC Breda's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to both teams score.
  • Tagged Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Banker 87%
Bookmakers 87% at 1.10, edge -0.5 pts, uncertainty ±0.7%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 87% against a market price of 87% (-0.5%).
  • Expected goals Helmond Sport 1.71 – 1.65 NAC Breda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 84% (uncertainty ±4.9%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 0.7 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Helmond Sport's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 87% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees.
Over 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Banker 68%
Bookmakers 68% at 1.39, edge -0.4 pts, uncertainty ±1.2%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 68% against a market price of 68% (-0.4%).
  • Expected goals Helmond Sport 1.71 – 1.65 NAC Breda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 65% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Helmond Sport's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • NAC Breda's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 68% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, market agrees.
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Avoid 54%
Bookmakers 54% at 1.75, edge +0.6 pts, uncertainty ±1.4%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 54% against a market price of 54% (+0.6%).
  • Expected goals Helmond Sport 1.71 – 1.65 NAC Breda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 57% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Helmond Sport's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • NAC Breda's attack (1.05× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • NAC Breda's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.6%).

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Avoid 55%
Bookmakers 55% at 1.69, edge -0.1 pts, uncertainty ±1.3%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 55% against a market price of 55% (-0.1%).
  • Expected corners: Helmond Sport 5.0, NAC Breda 5.3 — 10.3 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) takes 1.2 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Helmond Sport's corners for (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • NAC Breda's corners for (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Helmond Sport's corners conceded (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Banker 68%
Bookmakers 69% at 1.36, edge -0.5 pts, uncertainty ±1.3%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 68% against a market price of 69% (-0.5%).
  • Expected corners: Helmond Sport 5.0, NAC Breda 5.3 — 10.3 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 66% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) adds 1.3 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Helmond Sport's corners for (0.92× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • NAC Breda's corners for (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Helmond Sport's corners conceded (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 68% likely, uncertainty only ±1.3%, market agrees.
Over 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Avoid 56%
Bookmakers 56% at 1.66, edge -0.1 pts, uncertainty ±1.4%
  • Over 9.5 corners: 56% against a market price of 56% (-0.1%).
  • Expected corners: Helmond Sport 5.0, NAC Breda 5.3 — 10.3 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) adds 1.3 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Helmond Sport's corners for (0.92× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from over 9.5 corners.
  • NAC Breda's corners for (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Helmond Sport's corners conceded (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).

Cards

Over 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 53%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±11.7%
  • Over 3.5 cards: 53%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Helmond Sport 2.0, NAC Breda 1.9 — 3.9 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±11.7%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-14% cards at home) takes 5.8 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Helmond Sport's cards for (1.14× the league rate) adds 4.9 pts to over 3.5 cards.
  • NAC Breda's cards conceded (1.06× the league rate against) adds 2.1 pts to over 3.5 cards.
  • Helmond Sport's cards conceded (0.94× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Avoid 65%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.9%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 65%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Helmond Sport 2.0, NAC Breda 1.9 — 3.9 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-14% cards at home) adds 5.9 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Helmond Sport's cards for (1.14× the league rate) takes 4.7 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • NAC Breda's cards conceded (1.06× the league rate against) takes 2.1 pts from under 4.5 cards.
  • Helmond Sport's cards conceded (0.94× the league rate against) adds 2.0 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Avoid 79%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.1%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 79%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Helmond Sport 2.0, NAC Breda 1.9 — 3.9 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.1%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-14% cards at home) adds 4.9 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Helmond Sport's cards for (1.14× the league rate) takes 3.6 pts from under 5.5 cards.
  • NAC Breda's cards conceded (1.06× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from under 5.5 cards.
  • Helmond Sport's cards conceded (0.94× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 88%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.1%
  • Over 20.5 fouls: 88%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Helmond Sport 15.9, NAC Breda 11.4 — 27.3 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.1%.
  • NAC Breda's fouls conceded (1.16× the league rate against) adds 8.4 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Helmond Sport's fouls for (1.12× the league rate) adds 6.6 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • NAC Breda's fouls for (0.94× the league rate) takes 2.2 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Helmond Sport's fouls conceded (0.95× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 79%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±11.1%
  • Over 22.5 fouls: 79%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Helmond Sport 15.9, NAC Breda 11.4 — 27.3 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±11.1%.
  • NAC Breda's fouls conceded (1.16× the league rate against) adds 11.9 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Helmond Sport's fouls for (1.12× the league rate) adds 9.3 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • NAC Breda's fouls for (0.94× the league rate) takes 3.3 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • Helmond Sport's fouls conceded (0.95× the league rate against) takes 2.5 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 67%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±14.5%
  • Over 24.5 fouls: 67%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Helmond Sport 15.9, NAC Breda 11.4 — 27.3 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±14.5%.
  • NAC Breda's fouls conceded (1.16× the league rate against) adds 14.4 pts to over 24.5 fouls.
  • Helmond Sport's fouls for (1.12× the league rate) adds 11.3 pts to over 24.5 fouls.
  • NAC Breda's fouls for (0.94× the league rate) takes 4.2 pts from over 24.5 fouls.
  • Helmond Sport's fouls conceded (0.95× the league rate against) takes 3.2 pts from over 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Avoid 68%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.9%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 68%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Helmond Sport 10.8, NAC Breda 15.1 — 25.9 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.9%.
  • NAC Breda's shots for (1.15× the league rate) adds 11.7 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Helmond Sport's shots for (0.83× the league rate) takes 10.2 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots at home) adds 8.7 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • NAC Breda's shots conceded (0.88× the league rate against) takes 7.5 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 56%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.6%
  • Over 24.5 shots: 56%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Helmond Sport 10.8, NAC Breda 15.1 — 25.9 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.6%.
  • NAC Breda's shots for (1.15× the league rate) adds 12.8 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Helmond Sport's shots for (0.83× the league rate) takes 12.1 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots at home) adds 9.4 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • NAC Breda's shots conceded (0.88× the league rate against) takes 8.7 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 56%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.9%
  • Under 26.5 shots: 56%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Helmond Sport 10.8, NAC Breda 15.1 — 25.9 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.9%.
  • Helmond Sport's shots for (0.83× the league rate) adds 13.0 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • NAC Breda's shots for (1.15× the league rate) takes 12.5 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots at home) takes 9.3 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • NAC Breda's shots conceded (0.88× the league rate against) adds 9.1 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Banker 73%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.0%
  • Over 7.5 shots on target: 73%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Helmond Sport 4.5, NAC Breda 5.2 — 9.8 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.0%.
  • Helmond Sport's shots on target for (0.81× the league rate) takes 8.5 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+15% shots on target at home) adds 5.9 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • NAC Breda's shots on target for (1.10× the league rate) adds 4.5 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • NAC Breda's shots on target conceded (1.03× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Banker: 73% likely, uncertainty only ±5.0% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Over 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Banker 62%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.9%
  • Over 8.5 shots on target: 62%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Helmond Sport 4.5, NAC Breda 5.2 — 9.8 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.9%.
  • Helmond Sport's shots on target for (0.81× the league rate) takes 10.5 pts from over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+15% shots on target at home) adds 6.8 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • NAC Breda's shots on target for (1.10× the league rate) adds 5.3 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • NAC Breda's shots on target conceded (1.03× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Banker: 62% likely, uncertainty only ±5.9% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Over 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Avoid 50%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±6.3%
  • Over 9.5 shots on target: 50%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Helmond Sport 4.5, NAC Breda 5.2 — 9.8 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±6.3%.
  • Helmond Sport's shots on target for (0.81× the league rate) takes 11.8 pts from over 9.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+15% shots on target at home) adds 7.1 pts to over 9.5 shots on target.
  • NAC Breda's shots on target for (1.10× the league rate) adds 5.6 pts to over 9.5 shots on target.
  • NAC Breda's shots on target conceded (1.03× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to over 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Likely scores

Helmond Sport down, NAC Breda across
012345
03%6%5%3%1%0%
16%9%8%4%2%1%
25%8%7%4%2%1%
33%5%4%2%1%0%
41%2%2%1%0%0%
50%1%1%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–1 9%, 2–1 8%, 1–2 8%.

Team news

Rest: Helmond Sport 7 days, NAC Breda 7 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

2 versions
  1. Version 2 Fri 04:00, scheduled
    • Our probabilities: Home win 24% → 26% (+1.8 pts); Away win 55% → 53% (-2.0 pts).
  2. Version 1 Fri 00:00, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.