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Jong Utrecht
18:00
Roda
Mon 19 Oct, 18:00 Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Upset Watch
Home win
30%
Bookmakers 26%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
45%
Bookmakers 50%
Us 30%Bookmakers 26% Edge +4.8 pts Uncertainty ±2.1%

Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market.

Why

  • Home win: 30% against a market price of 26% (+4.8%).
  • Expected goals Jong Utrecht 1.57 – 1.47 Roda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.
  • Jong Utrecht's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.
  • Roda's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.
  • Roda's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market.

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
2.7
Jong Utrecht attack
-1.4
Roda attack
1.2
Roda defence
-1.1
Jong Utrecht defence
-1.0

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Both teams score Both teams to score Avoid 60%
Bookmakers 60% at 1.56, edge -0.1 pts, uncertainty ±1.7%
  • Both teams score: 60% against a market price of 60% (-0.1%).
  • Expected goals Jong Utrecht 1.57 – 1.47 Roda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 60% (uncertainty ±5.3%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to both teams score.
  • Roda's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from both teams score.
  • Jong Utrecht's defence (1.10× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to both teams score.
  • Jong Utrecht's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from both teams score.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Banker 81%
Bookmakers 82% at 1.16, edge -0.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.1%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 81% against a market price of 82% (-0.8%).
  • Expected goals Jong Utrecht 1.57 – 1.47 Roda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 79% (uncertainty ±3.5%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Roda's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • Jong Utrecht's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • Jong Utrecht's defence (1.10× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 81% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.
Over 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Avoid 58%
Bookmakers 59% at 1.61, edge -0.3 pts, uncertainty ±1.7%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 58% against a market price of 59% (-0.3%).
  • Expected goals Jong Utrecht 1.57 – 1.47 Roda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±5.3%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Roda's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • Jong Utrecht's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • Jong Utrecht's defence (1.10× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Banker 64%
Bookmakers 64% at 1.47, edge +0.1 pts, uncertainty ±1.4%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 64% against a market price of 64% (+0.1%).
  • Expected goals Jong Utrecht 1.57 – 1.47 Roda.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Roda's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • Jong Utrecht's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • Jong Utrecht's defence (1.10× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Banker: 64% likely, uncertainty only ±1.4%, market agrees.

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Banker 61%
Bookmakers 60% at 1.55, edge +1.3 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 61% against a market price of 60% (+1.3%).
  • Expected corners: Jong Utrecht 4.3, Roda 5.0 — 9.4 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 65% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Jong Utrecht's corners for (0.85× the league rate) adds 2.2 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) takes 1.8 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Jong Utrecht's corners conceded (1.14× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Roda's corners conceded (0.92× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.5%, market agrees.
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Avoid 63%
Bookmakers 65% at 1.44, edge -1.7 pts, uncertainty ±1.6%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 63% against a market price of 65% (-1.7%).
  • Expected corners: Jong Utrecht 4.3, Roda 5.0 — 9.4 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 57% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Jong Utrecht's corners for (0.85× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) adds 1.8 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Jong Utrecht's corners conceded (1.14× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Roda's corners conceded (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).
Over 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Avoid 51%
Bookmakers 53% at 1.78, edge -1.7 pts, uncertainty ±1.6%
  • Over 9.5 corners: 51% against a market price of 53% (-1.7%).
  • Expected corners: Jong Utrecht 4.3, Roda 5.0 — 9.4 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Jong Utrecht's corners for (0.85× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from over 9.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) adds 1.8 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Jong Utrecht's corners conceded (1.14× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Roda's corners conceded (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from over 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).

Cards

Under 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 56%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.5%
  • Under 3.5 cards: 56%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Jong Utrecht 1.6, Roda 1.8 — 3.4 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.5%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-13% cards at home) adds 5.1 pts to under 3.5 cards.
  • Jong Utrecht's cards for (0.95× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to under 3.5 cards.
  • Roda's cards for (0.96× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to under 3.5 cards.
  • Jong Utrecht's cards conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to under 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Avoid 75%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.3%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 75%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Jong Utrecht 1.6, Roda 1.8 — 3.4 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.3%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-13% cards at home) adds 4.5 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Jong Utrecht's cards for (0.95× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Jong Utrecht's cards conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Roda's cards for (0.96× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Avoid 87%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.1%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 87%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Jong Utrecht 1.6, Roda 1.8 — 3.4 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.1%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-13% cards at home) adds 3.2 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Jong Utrecht's cards for (0.95× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Jong Utrecht's cards conceded (0.96× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Roda's cards for (0.96× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 88%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.0%
  • Over 20.5 fouls: 88%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Jong Utrecht 14.2, Roda 12.8 — 27.1 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.0%.
  • Roda's fouls conceded (1.11× the league rate against) adds 5.6 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Jong Utrecht's fouls conceded (1.05× the league rate against) adds 2.2 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Roda's fouls for (0.95× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from over 20.5 fouls.
  • Jong Utrecht's fouls for (1.04× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to over 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 79%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±12.0%
  • Over 22.5 fouls: 79%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Jong Utrecht 14.2, Roda 12.8 — 27.1 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±12.0%.
  • Roda's fouls conceded (1.11× the league rate against) adds 7.9 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Jong Utrecht's fouls conceded (1.05× the league rate against) adds 3.3 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Roda's fouls for (0.95× the league rate) takes 3.1 pts from over 22.5 fouls.
  • Jong Utrecht's fouls for (1.04× the league rate) adds 2.9 pts to over 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 66%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±15.3%
  • Over 24.5 fouls: 66%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Jong Utrecht 14.2, Roda 12.8 — 27.1 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±15.3%.
  • Roda's fouls conceded (1.11× the league rate against) adds 9.5 pts to over 24.5 fouls.
  • Jong Utrecht's fouls conceded (1.05× the league rate against) adds 4.1 pts to over 24.5 fouls.
  • Roda's fouls for (0.95× the league rate) takes 3.9 pts from over 24.5 fouls.
  • Jong Utrecht's fouls for (1.04× the league rate) adds 3.6 pts to over 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Banker 71%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.0%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 71%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Jong Utrecht 13.5, Roda 12.9 — 26.4 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.0%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots at home) adds 10.3 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots conceded (1.10× the league rate against) adds 6.4 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots for (0.91× the league rate) takes 5.9 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Roda's shots for (0.92× the league rate) takes 5.3 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Banker: 71% likely, uncertainty only ±5.0% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Over 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 59%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.4%
  • Over 24.5 shots: 59%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Jong Utrecht 13.5, Roda 12.9 — 26.4 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.4%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots at home) adds 11.4 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots conceded (1.10× the league rate against) adds 7.2 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots for (0.91× the league rate) takes 7.0 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Roda's shots for (0.92× the league rate) takes 6.3 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 53%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.6%
  • Under 26.5 shots: 53%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Jong Utrecht 13.5, Roda 12.9 — 26.4 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.6%.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots at home) takes 11.3 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots for (0.91× the league rate) adds 7.5 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots conceded (1.10× the league rate against) takes 7.4 pts from under 26.5 shots.
  • Roda's shots for (0.92× the league rate) adds 6.7 pts to under 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Banker 70%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.2%
  • Over 7.5 shots on target: 70%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Jong Utrecht 4.5, Roda 4.8 — 9.4 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.2%.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots on target conceded (1.14× the league rate against) adds 6.5 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+15% shots on target at home) adds 6.5 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots on target for (0.89× the league rate) takes 5.6 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Roda's shots on target for (0.90× the league rate) takes 5.2 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Banker: 70% likely, uncertainty only ±5.2% (no bookmaker price to compare).
Over 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Avoid 58%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±5.5%
  • Over 8.5 shots on target: 58%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Jong Utrecht 4.5, Roda 4.8 — 9.4 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±5.5%.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots on target conceded (1.14× the league rate against) adds 7.3 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+15% shots on target at home) adds 7.2 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots on target for (0.89× the league rate) takes 6.6 pts from over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Roda's shots on target for (0.90× the league rate) takes 6.1 pts from over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Avoid 54%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±6.7%
  • Under 9.5 shots on target: 54%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Jong Utrecht 4.5, Roda 4.8 — 9.4 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±6.7%.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots on target conceded (1.14× the league rate against) takes 7.3 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+15% shots on target at home) takes 7.2 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Jong Utrecht's shots on target for (0.89× the league rate) adds 7.0 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Roda's shots on target for (0.90× the league rate) adds 6.4 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Likely scores

Jong Utrecht down, Roda across
012345
04%8%5%3%1%0%
18%11%8%4%1%0%
26%9%6%3%1%0%
33%5%3%2%1%0%
41%2%1%1%0%0%
50%1%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–1 11%, 2–1 9%, 1–2 8%.

Team news

Rest: Jong Utrecht 10 days, Roda 10 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

1 version
  1. Version 1 Mon 00:30, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.