De Graafschap
18:00
Waalwijk
Fri 23 Oct, 18:00
De Vijverberg
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
40%
Bookmakers 38%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
37%
Bookmakers 38%
Us 40%Bookmakers 38%
Edge +2.2 pts
Uncertainty ±2.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.2% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 40% against a market price of 38% (+2.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsDe Graafschap
LWDWL
- 19 Oct · A v Jong Ajax 1–2 (xG 0.73–2.85)
- 9 Oct · H v Jong Utrecht 2–1 (xG 1.59–1.61)
- 3 Oct · A v FC Eindhoven 2–2
- 27 Sep · H v Den Bosch 1–0
- 20 Sep · H v NAC Breda 1–2 (xG 1.19–2.07)
Waalwijk
DLDLW
- 18 Oct · H v FC Volendam 1–1 (xG 2.38–0.70)
- 9 Oct · A v Heracles 0–3 (xG 0.75–2.47)
- 3 Oct · H v Emmen 1–1 (xG 1.09–1.77)
- 26 Sep · A v Roda 0–2 (xG 0.78–0.49)
- 18 Sep · H v MVV 6–1 (xG 2.43–0.54)
Head-to-head
De Graafschap 1 · draws 0 · Waalwijk 1, 5.5 goals a game
- 23 Jan 2026 · De Graafschap 2–4 Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie)
- 9 Nov 2025 · Waalwijk 1–4 De Graafschap (Eerste Divisie)