Jong AZ
18:00
Helmond Sport
Fri 23 Oct, 18:00
AFAS Trainingscomplex
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
53%
Bookmakers 51%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 23%
Away win
25%
Bookmakers 26%
Us 53%Bookmakers 51%
Edge +2.6 pts
Uncertainty ±2.2%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 53% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.6% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 53% against a market price of 51% (+2.6%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsJong AZ
DLWDL
- 16 Oct · A v VVV Venlo 4–4 (xG 1.44–2.41)
- 9 Oct · H v Den Bosch 0–1 (xG 0.85–0.94)
- 18 Sep · H v FC Volendam 4–1 (xG 2.82–1.05)
- 14 Sep · A v Jong PSV U21 1–1 (xG 0.94–1.93)
- 11 Sep · A v Heracles 2–3
Helmond Sport
LLDLL
- 16 Oct · H v NAC Breda 0–2 (xG 0.73–1.86)
- 9 Oct · A v FC OSS 1–3 (xG 1.48–2.78)
- 2 Oct · H v Heracles 2–2 (xG 1.58–2.06)
- 26 Sep · A v MVV 0–2
- 18 Sep · A v Den Bosch 1–2 (xG 0.95–1.65)
Head-to-head
Jong AZ 1 · draws 0 · Helmond Sport 3, 4.0 goals a game
- 3 Apr 2026 · Jong AZ 2–0 Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie)
- 17 Oct 2025 · Helmond Sport 4–2 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
- 26 Jan 2025 · Helmond Sport 2–1 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
- 18 Oct 2024 · Jong AZ 2–3 Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie)