NAC Breda
18:00
Heracles
Fri 23 Oct, 18:00
Rat Verlegh Stadion
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
41%
Bookmakers 40%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
36%
Bookmakers 36%
Us 41%Bookmakers 40%
Edge +1.1 pts
Uncertainty ±2.8%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 41% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.1% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 41% against a market price of 40% (+1.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsNAC Breda
WWDWW
- 16 Oct · A v Helmond Sport 2–0 (xG 1.86–0.73)
- 9 Oct · H v MVV 1–0 (xG 0.72–0.28)
- 3 Oct · A v Vitesse 2–2
- 26 Sep · H v FC Eindhoven 4–2 (xG 2.31–0.35)
- 20 Sep · A v De Graafschap 2–1 (xG 2.07–1.19)
Heracles
WWDWL
- 18 Oct · A v MVV 5–1 (xG 2.88–0.58)
- 9 Oct · H v Waalwijk 3–0 (xG 2.47–0.75)
- 2 Oct · A v Helmond Sport 2–2 (xG 2.06–1.58)
- 26 Sep · H v Vitesse 2–0 (xG 1.77–1.19)
- 18 Sep · A v Almere City FC 0–1 (xG 2.63–0.23)
Head-to-head
NAC Breda 2 · draws 1 · Heracles 1, 2.0 goals a game
- 14 Feb 2026 · Heracles 0–1 NAC Breda (Eredivisie)
- 20 Sep 2025 · NAC Breda 2–1 Heracles (Eredivisie)
- 31 Jan 2025 · NAC Breda 1–1 Heracles (Eredivisie)
- 2 Nov 2024 · Heracles 2–0 NAC Breda (Eredivisie)