Heerenveen
4–0
Excelsior
Fri 16 Oct, 18:00
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
Match result: no bet
WonHome win
57%
Bookmakers 61%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 21%
Away win
21%
Bookmakers 18%
Us 57%Bookmakers 61%
Edge -4.4 pts
Uncertainty ±1.7%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: no edge over the market price (-4.4%).
- Home win: 57% against a market price of 61% (-4.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsHeerenveen
LWDLD
- 9 Oct · A v PSV Eindhoven 0–2 (xG 1.57–2.38)
- 19 Sep · A v Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 (xG 1.80–0.67)
- 13 Sep · H v Telstar 0–0 (xG 1.54–0.71)
- 6 Sep · H v AZ Alkmaar 2–3 (xG 1.48–1.04)
- 30 Aug · A v Willem II 2–2 (xG 1.35–1.70)
Excelsior
LDLDW
- 11 Oct · H v Groningen 1–5 (xG 1.77–2.75)
- 19 Sep · A v Ajax 2–2 (xG 0.82–2.51)
- 13 Sep · H v Utrecht 1–2 (xG 0.61–1.42)
- 8 Sep · A v NEC Nijmegen 2–2 (xG 1.81–1.36)
- 5 Sep · A v Willem II 3–0 (xG 1.60–0.86)
Head-to-head
Heerenveen 2 · draws 0 · Excelsior 0, 3.0 goals a game
- 7 Mar 2026 · Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 4 Oct 2025 · Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)