Lens
2–1
Paris FC
Sat 24 Oct, 18:45
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
M. Vernice
Match result: no bet
WonHome win
43%
Bookmakers 39%
Draw
25%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
31%
Bookmakers 34%
Us 43%Bookmakers 39%
Edge +3.8 pts
Uncertainty ±2.2%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 43% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +3.8% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 43% against a market price of 39% (+3.8%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsLens
LWLWL
- 21 Oct · A v Club Brugge KV 0–3 (xG 2.10–2.68)
- 17 Oct · A v Estac Troyes 3–1 (xG 1.45–1.27)
- 13 Oct · H v Sporting CP 0–2 (xG 1.72–1.67)
- 9 Oct · H v Lyon 2–1 (xG 1.34–1.04)
- 18 Sep · A v Monaco 1–2 (xG 1.19–1.75)
Paris FC
WLWDW
- 18 Oct · H v Rennes 4–3 (xG 3.71–3.08)
- 10 Oct · A v Lorient 0–1 (xG 0.99–0.60)
- 19 Sep · H v Strasbourg 2–1 (xG 1.05–0.24)
- 12 Sep · H v Lyon 0–0 (xG 0.30–0.50)
- 6 Sep · A v Marseille 3–2 (xG 3.29–1.42)
Head-to-head
Lens 2 · draws 0 · Paris FC 0, 4.0 goals a game
- 14 Feb 2026 · Paris FC 0–5 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 19 Oct 2025 · Lens 2–1 Paris FC (Ligue 1)