Monaco
1–1
Lille
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00
Stade Louis II
Francois Letexier
Match result: no bet
LostHome win
49%
Bookmakers 48%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
24%
Bookmakers 24%
Us 49%Bookmakers 48%
Edge +1.3 pts
Uncertainty ±2.0%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 49% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.3% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 49% against a market price of 48% (+1.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMonaco
WLWDW
- 22 Oct · H v SC Freiburg 3–0 (xG 1.25–0.83)
- 18 Oct · A v Lorient 0–1 (xG 0.71–1.66)
- 15 Oct · A v CSKA Sofia 2–1 (xG 1.32–1.28)
- 10 Oct · H v Toulouse 2–2 (xG 1.25–1.49)
- 18 Sep · H v Lens 2–1 (xG 1.75–1.19)
Lille
LDLWL
- 21 Oct · H v Galatasaray 2–4 (xG 1.92–1.66)
- 17 Oct · H v Stade Brestois 29 1–1 (xG 2.25–0.84)
- 13 Oct · A v Arsenal 0–3 (xG 0.30–1.70)
- 10 Oct · H v Le Havre 1–0 (xG 1.35–1.34)
- 20 Sep · A v Nice 1–2 (xG 1.58–1.50)
Head-to-head
Monaco 0 · draws 1 · Lille 3, 1.3 goals a game
- 10 May 2026 · Monaco 0–1 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 24 Aug 2025 · Lille 1–0 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 22 Feb 2025 · Lille 2–1 Monaco (Ligue 1)
- 18 Oct 2024 · Monaco 0–0 Lille (Ligue 1)