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FC Thun
13:00
FC Lugano
Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 Stockhorn Arena
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.

Match result: no bet

Home win
26%
Bookmakers 27%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 23%
Away win
52%
Bookmakers 50%
Us 52%Bookmakers 50% Edge +1.7 pts Uncertainty ±1.7%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 52% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.7% alone is not enough).

  • Away win: 52% against a market price of 50% (+1.7%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

FC Thun

LLLWL
  • 22 Oct · H v HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 (xG 1.35–1.30)
  • 15 Oct · A v Twente 0–1 (xG 0.20–2.18)
  • 10 Oct · A v FC Zurich 2–4 (xG 1.46–0.94)
  • 20 Sep · A v FC Vaduz 2–1 (xG 1.70–2.77)
  • 16 Sep · H v Servette FC 2–4 (xG 2.05–1.52)

FC Lugano

WWWWW
  • 22 Oct · A v Getafe 5–2 (xG 1.94–2.48)
  • 15 Oct · H v FK Crvena Zvezda 3–2 (xG 2.29–1.23)
  • 10 Oct · H v FC Luzern 4–0 (xG 2.56–0.89)
  • 20 Sep · A v Lausanne 4–0 (xG 2.09–0.50)
  • 16 Sep · H v FC ST. Gallen 4–1 (xG 1.41–1.14)

Head-to-head

FC Thun 1 · draws 0 · FC Lugano 3, 1.5 goals a game

  • 25 Apr 2026 · FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano (Super League)
  • 4 Apr 2026 · FC Lugano 1–0 FC Thun (Super League)
  • 22 Nov 2025 · FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano (Super League)
  • 27 Jul 2025 · FC Lugano 1–2 FC Thun (Super League)