Aberdeen
19:45
Falkirk
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
Pittodrie Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 77%Books 77% Best odds 1.30 (Betfair)
Match result: no bet
Home win
45%
Bookmakers 49%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
29%
Bookmakers 25%
Us 45%Bookmakers 49%
Edge -3.6 pts
Uncertainty ±2.6%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 45% against a market price of 49% (-3.6%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAberdeen
LWLDW
- 24 Oct · A v Dundee Utd 2–3 (xG 1.58–1.54)
- 17 Oct · H v ST Mirren 3–1 (xG 2.33–1.02)
- 11 Oct · H v ST Johnstone 0–1 (xG 1.23–1.10)
- 19 Sep · A v Hibernian 1–1 (xG 0.77–1.43)
- 15 Sep · A v Motherwell 4–0 (xG 0.91–0.77)
Falkirk
WWLDW
- 24 Oct · H v Kilmarnock 3–0 (xG 2.08–1.89)
- 17 Oct · A v Hibernian 2–1 (xG 0.82–1.42)
- 10 Oct · H v Dundee 1–2 (xG 1.92–1.43)
- 19 Sep · A v ST Johnstone 1–1 (xG 0.90–0.68)
- 15 Sep · H v Heart Of Midlothian 2–1 (xG 2.05–1.72)
Head-to-head
Aberdeen 0 · draws 1 · Falkirk 2, 1.3 goals a game
- 14 Mar 2026 · Aberdeen 1–1 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 3 Jan 2026 · Falkirk 1–0 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 31 Aug 2025 · Aberdeen 0–1 Falkirk (Premiership)