Dundee
19:45
Kilmarnock
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
Dens Park
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 83%Books 82% Best odds 1.20 (Betfair)
Match result: no bet
Home win
51%
Bookmakers 49%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
25%
Bookmakers 26%
Us 51%Bookmakers 49%
Edge +1.8 pts
Uncertainty ±2.8%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 51% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.8% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 51% against a market price of 49% (+1.8%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsDundee
LDWWL
- 24 Oct · A v ST Mirren 1–2 (xG 1.50–1.48)
- 17 Oct · H v Rangers 2–2 (xG 1.81–1.82)
- 10 Oct · A v Falkirk 2–1 (xG 1.43–1.92)
- 19 Sep · H v Motherwell 2–1 (xG 1.36–1.10)
- 6 Sep · A v Heart Of Midlothian 1–2 (xG 0.51–1.87)
Kilmarnock
LWLDW
- 24 Oct · A v Falkirk 0–3 (xG 1.89–2.08)
- 17 Oct · H v Motherwell 3–2 (xG 1.56–2.46)
- 10 Oct · A v Rangers 1–3 (xG 1.15–1.42)
- 19 Sep · H v Heart Of Midlothian 1–1 (xG 0.23–1.78)
- 15 Sep · A v Hibernian 1–0 (xG 1.95–1.31)
Head-to-head
Dundee 1 · draws 3 · Kilmarnock 2, 3.0 goals a game
- 12 May 2026 · Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee (Premiership)
- 11 Apr 2026 · Kilmarnock 2–2 Dundee (Premiership)
- 30 Dec 2025 · Dundee 2–1 Kilmarnock (Premiership)
- 23 Aug 2025 · Kilmarnock 0–0 Dundee (Premiership)
- 10 May 2025 · Kilmarnock 3–2 Dundee (Premiership)
- 30 Nov 2024 · Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee (Premiership)