ST Johnstone
19:45
Motherwell
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
McDiarmid Park
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 78%Books 78% Best odds 1.28 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
37%
Bookmakers 38%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
37%
Bookmakers 35%
Us 37%Bookmakers 35%
Edge +1.5 pts
Uncertainty ±2.3%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 37% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.5% alone is not enough).
- Away win: 37% against a market price of 35% (+1.5%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsST Johnstone
LDWDL
- 24 Oct · A v Rangers 0–4 (xG 0.61–4.61)
- 17 Oct · H v Dundee Utd 1–1 (xG 1.36–1.17)
- 11 Oct · A v Aberdeen 1–0 (xG 1.10–1.23)
- 19 Sep · H v Falkirk 1–1 (xG 0.68–0.90)
- 9 Sep · H v Celtic 0–1 (xG 0.77–2.22)
Motherwell
LLLLL
- 25 Oct · H v Heart Of Midlothian 0–2 (xG 1.34–1.12)
- 17 Oct · A v Kilmarnock 2–3 (xG 2.46–1.56)
- 11 Oct · H v Celtic 0–2 (xG 1.09–2.88)
- 19 Sep · A v Dundee 1–2 (xG 1.10–1.36)
- 15 Sep · H v Aberdeen 0–4 (xG 0.77–0.91)
Head-to-head
ST Johnstone 1 · draws 0 · Motherwell 3, 3.5 goals a game
- 26 Apr 2025 · Motherwell 3–2 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 25 Jan 2025 · ST Johnstone 2–1 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 9 Nov 2024 · Motherwell 2–1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 31 Aug 2024 · ST Johnstone 1–2 Motherwell (Premiership)