Newcastle
0–1
Aston Villa
Sat 17 Oct, 16:30
St James' Park
Jarred Gillett
Match result: no bet
LostHome win
40%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
33%
Bookmakers 31%
Us 40%Bookmakers 43%
Edge -2.5 pts
Uncertainty ±2.0%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).
- Home win: 40% against a market price of 43% (-2.5%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsNewcastle
LWLWD
- 12 Oct · A v Coventry 1–4 (xG 1.85–1.52)
- 19 Sep · H v Hull City 2–1 (xG 1.44–1.59)
- 14 Sep · A v Leeds 1–4 (xG 0.88–2.08)
- 8 Sep · A v Millwall 1–0
- 5 Sep · H v Bournemouth 2–2 (xG 0.71–1.37)
Aston Villa
WDWWL
- 14 Oct · H v Fenerbahçe 6–0 (xG 3.15–1.75)
- 10 Oct · H v Brentford 2–2 (xG 2.28–1.06)
- 19 Sep · A v Tottenham 3–2 (xG 1.16–1.56)
- 16 Sep · A v Coventry 3–1
- 12 Sep · H v Nottingham Forest 1–2 (xG 0.82–2.28)
Head-to-head
Newcastle 2 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 2, 2.8 goals a game
- 14 Feb 2026 · Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle (FA Cup)
- 25 Jan 2026 · Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 16 Aug 2025 · Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 19 Apr 2025 · Aston Villa 4–1 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 26 Dec 2024 · Newcastle 3–0 Aston Villa (Premier League)