Aston Villa v Manchester City

Aston Villa

11:30

Manchester City

Sat 24 Oct, 11:30 Villa Park Peter Bankes

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.

Match result: no bet

Home win

23%

Bookmakers 20%

Draw

23%

Bookmakers 22%

Away win

54%

Bookmakers 58%

Us 54%Bookmakers 58% Edge -3.7 pts Uncertainty ±2.0%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 54% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

Join free to open them

Already a member? Sign in

All competitions

WWWDW

21 Oct · H v Viking 3–1 (xG 2.75–0.81)
17 Oct · A v Newcastle 1–0 (xG 1.63–1.07)
14 Oct · H v Fenerbahçe 6–0 (xG 3.15–1.75)
10 Oct · H v Brentford 2–2 (xG 2.28–1.06)
19 Sep · A v Tottenham 3–2 (xG 1.16–1.56)

WWLWW

20 Oct · H v AEK Athens FC 5–1 (xG 2.82–1.23)
17 Oct · H v Ipswich 3–2 (xG 3.61–1.72)
14 Oct · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–4 (xG 2.67–1.85)
11 Oct · A v Liverpool 3–0 (xG 1.28–0.94)
20 Sep · H v Sunderland 5–3 (xG 2.82–3.57)

Aston Villa 3 · draws 0 · Manchester City 1, 2.5 goals a game