Aston Villa
2–1
Manchester City
Sat 24 Oct, 11:30
Villa Park
Peter Bankes, England
Match result: no bet
LostHome win
21%
Bookmakers 19%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
57%
Bookmakers 59%
Us 57%Bookmakers 59%
Edge -2.1 pts
Uncertainty ±2.1%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 57% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 57% against a market price of 59% (-2.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAston Villa
WWWDW
- 21 Oct · H v Viking 3–1 (xG 2.75–0.81)
- 17 Oct · A v Newcastle 1–0 (xG 1.63–1.07)
- 14 Oct · H v Fenerbahçe 6–0 (xG 3.15–1.75)
- 10 Oct · H v Brentford 2–2 (xG 2.28–1.06)
- 19 Sep · A v Tottenham 3–2 (xG 1.16–1.56)
Manchester City
WWLWW
- 20 Oct · H v AEK Athens FC 5–1 (xG 2.82–1.23)
- 17 Oct · H v Ipswich 3–2 (xG 3.61–1.72)
- 14 Oct · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–4 (xG 2.67–1.85)
- 11 Oct · A v Liverpool 3–0 (xG 1.28–0.94)
- 20 Sep · H v Sunderland 5–3 (xG 2.82–3.57)
Head-to-head
Aston Villa 3 · draws 0 · Manchester City 1, 2.5 goals a game
- 24 May 2026 · Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 26 Oct 2025 · Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 22 Apr 2025 · Manchester City 2–1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 21 Dec 2024 · Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)