Skip to content
Trosbet
Feed live

Your colour

Mode

Saved on this device
Sign in Join free
Austria Lustenau
15:00
Lask Linz
Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Planet Pure Stadion Emil Ristoskov Match of the day: fully open

Our pick: Home win

Upset Watch
Home win
17%
Bookmakers 12%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 18%
Away win
61%
Bookmakers 70%
Us 17%Bookmakers 12% Edge +5.8 pts Uncertainty ±2.1%

Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.

Why

  • Home win: 17% against a market price of 12% (+5.8%).
  • Expected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.
  • Austria Lustenau missing 2.6 regular starters; Lask Linz missing 5.7 regular starters adds 2.3 pts to home win.
  • Rest days (Austria Lustenau 6, Lask Linz 3) takes 1.7 pts from home win.
  • Lask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.
  • Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.
  • What changed since v2:
  • Triggered by Confirmed lineups released: Lask Linz 3-4-1-2, Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1.
  • Our probabilities: Home win 17% → 17% (+0.6 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+0.8 pts); Away win 62% → 61% (-1.4 pts).

What moved the number

Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
2.4
Missing regular starters
2.3
Rest days
-1.7
Lask Linz attack
-1.4
Lask Linz defence
-0.5
Austria Lustenau defence
-0.4

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of home win, per bookmaker

Every market

From the same simulated games, so they never contradict

Both teams to score

Both teams score Both teams to score Avoid 58%
Bookmakers 57% at 1.64, edge +0.7 pts, uncertainty ±1.7%
  • Both teams score: 58% against a market price of 57% (+0.7%).
  • Expected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to both teams score.
  • Lask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to both teams score.
  • Austria Lustenau missing 2.6 regular starters; Lask Linz missing 5.7 regular starters takes 0.7 pts from both teams score.
  • Rest days (Austria Lustenau 6, Lask Linz 3) adds 0.5 pts to both teams score.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).

Goals

Over 1.5 goals Goals O/U 1.5 Avoid 85%
Bookmakers 86% at 1.11, edge -1.3 pts, uncertainty ±1.0%
  • Over 1.5 goals: 85% against a market price of 86% (-1.3%).
  • Expected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 79% (uncertainty ±4.6%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Lask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to over 1.5 goals.
  • Austria Lustenau missing 2.6 regular starters; Lask Linz missing 5.7 regular starters takes 0.6 pts from over 1.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).
Over 2.5 goals Goals O/U 2.5 Avoid 64%
Bookmakers 66% at 1.42, edge -2.1 pts, uncertainty ±1.5%
  • Over 2.5 goals: 64% against a market price of 66% (-2.1%).
  • Expected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Lask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to over 2.5 goals.
  • Austria Lustenau missing 2.6 regular starters; Lask Linz missing 5.7 regular starters takes 0.8 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • Lask Linz's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from over 2.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).
Under 3.5 goals Goals O/U 3.5 Avoid 58%
Bookmakers 56% at 1.69, edge +1.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.2%
  • Under 3.5 goals: 58% against a market price of 56% (+1.8%).
  • Expected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 66% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Home advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) takes 1.1 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Lask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from under 3.5 goals.
  • Austria Lustenau missing 2.6 regular starters; Lask Linz missing 5.7 regular starters adds 0.7 pts to under 3.5 goals.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.8%).

Corners

Under 10.5 corners Corners O/U 10.5 Avoid 60%
Bookmakers 62% at 1.50, edge -2.3 pts, uncertainty ±1.4%
  • Under 10.5 corners: 60% against a market price of 62% (-2.3%).
  • Expected corners: Austria Lustenau 4.7, Lask Linz 6.3 — 11.0 in total against a line of 10.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Lask Linz's corners for (1.21× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Austria Lustenau's corners conceded (1.15× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) takes 1.2 pts from under 10.5 corners.
  • Lask Linz's corners conceded (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to under 10.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).
Over 8.5 corners Corners O/U 8.5 Banker 63%
Bookmakers 61% at 1.53, edge +1.8 pts, uncertainty ±1.2%
  • Over 8.5 corners: 63% against a market price of 61% (+1.8%).
  • Expected corners: Austria Lustenau 4.7, Lask Linz 6.3 — 11.0 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 71% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Lask Linz's corners for (1.21× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Austria Lustenau's corners conceded (1.15× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) adds 1.1 pts to over 8.5 corners.
  • Lask Linz's corners conceded (0.89× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from over 8.5 corners.
  • Tagged Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, market agrees.
Over 9.5 corners Corners O/U 9.5 Avoid 52%
Bookmakers 50% at 1.87, edge +2.0 pts, uncertainty ±1.3%
  • Over 9.5 corners: 52% against a market price of 50% (+2.0%).
  • Expected corners: Austria Lustenau 4.7, Lask Linz 6.3 — 11.0 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Lask Linz's corners for (1.21× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Austria Lustenau's corners conceded (1.15× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Home advantage in this league (+18% corners at home) adds 1.2 pts to over 9.5 corners.
  • Lask Linz's corners conceded (0.89× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from over 9.5 corners.
  • Tagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.0%).

Cards

Over 3.5 cards Cards O/U 3.5 Avoid 58%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±10.9%
  • Over 3.5 cards: 58%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Austria Lustenau 2.0, Lask Linz 2.2 — 4.1 in total against a line of 3.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±10.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-18% cards at home) takes 7.2 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Lask Linz's cards for (0.95× the league rate) takes 2.2 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Austria Lustenau's cards conceded (0.95× the league rate against) takes 2.1 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Lask Linz's cards conceded (0.98× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from over 3.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 4.5 cards Cards O/U 4.5 Avoid 60%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±11.9%
  • Under 4.5 cards: 60%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Austria Lustenau 2.0, Lask Linz 2.2 — 4.1 in total against a line of 4.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±11.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-18% cards at home) adds 7.8 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Lask Linz's cards for (0.95× the league rate) adds 2.3 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Austria Lustenau's cards conceded (0.95× the league rate against) adds 2.1 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Lask Linz's cards conceded (0.98× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to under 4.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 5.5 cards Cards O/U 5.5 Avoid 75%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.8%
  • Under 5.5 cards: 75%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected cards: Austria Lustenau 2.0, Lask Linz 2.2 — 4.1 in total against a line of 5.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.8%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-18% cards at home) adds 6.9 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Lask Linz's cards for (0.95× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Austria Lustenau's cards conceded (0.95× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Lask Linz's cards conceded (0.98× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to under 5.5 cards.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Fouls

Under 20.5 fouls Fouls O/U 20.5 Avoid 50%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±16.7%
  • Under 20.5 fouls: 50%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Austria Lustenau 9.9, Lask Linz 10.7 — 20.6 in total against a line of 20.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±16.7%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-8% fouls at home) adds 7.0 pts to under 20.5 fouls.
  • Lask Linz's fouls for (0.96× the league rate) adds 3.7 pts to under 20.5 fouls.
  • Austria Lustenau's fouls for (0.97× the league rate) adds 2.3 pts to under 20.5 fouls.
  • Austria Lustenau's fouls conceded (0.98× the league rate against) adds 2.0 pts to under 20.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 22.5 fouls Fouls O/U 22.5 Avoid 66%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±15.8%
  • Under 22.5 fouls: 66%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Austria Lustenau 9.9, Lask Linz 10.7 — 20.6 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±15.8%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-8% fouls at home) adds 6.9 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Lask Linz's fouls for (0.96× the league rate) adds 3.5 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Austria Lustenau's fouls for (0.97× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Lask Linz's fouls conceded (0.98× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to under 22.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 24.5 fouls Fouls O/U 24.5 Avoid 79%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±12.9%
  • Under 24.5 fouls: 79%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected fouls: Austria Lustenau 9.9, Lask Linz 10.7 — 20.6 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±12.9%.
  • Home advantage in this league (-8% fouls at home) adds 5.9 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Lask Linz's fouls for (0.96× the league rate) adds 2.9 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Austria Lustenau's fouls for (0.97× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Lask Linz's fouls conceded (0.98× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to under 24.5 fouls.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Total shots

Over 22.5 shots Total shots O/U 22.5 Avoid 79%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.4%
  • Over 22.5 shots: 79%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Austria Lustenau 12.7, Lask Linz 16.2 — 28.9 in total against a line of 22.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.4%.
  • Lask Linz's shots for (1.26× the league rate) adds 14.7 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+21% shots at home) adds 9.2 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Austria Lustenau's shots conceded (1.12× the league rate against) adds 6.6 pts to over 22.5 shots.
  • Lask Linz's shots conceded (0.90× the league rate against) takes 4.7 pts from over 22.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 24.5 shots Total shots O/U 24.5 Avoid 70%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±8.4%
  • Over 24.5 shots: 70%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Austria Lustenau 12.7, Lask Linz 16.2 — 28.9 in total against a line of 24.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±8.4%.
  • Lask Linz's shots for (1.26× the league rate) adds 17.0 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+21% shots at home) adds 10.8 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Austria Lustenau's shots conceded (1.12× the league rate against) adds 8.1 pts to over 24.5 shots.
  • Lask Linz's shots conceded (0.90× the league rate against) takes 5.9 pts from over 24.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 26.5 shots Total shots O/U 26.5 Avoid 59%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±9.6%
  • Over 26.5 shots: 59%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots: Austria Lustenau 12.7, Lask Linz 16.2 — 28.9 in total against a line of 26.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±9.6%.
  • Lask Linz's shots for (1.26× the league rate) adds 18.0 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Home advantage in this league (+21% shots at home) adds 11.6 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Austria Lustenau's shots conceded (1.12× the league rate against) adds 9.0 pts to over 26.5 shots.
  • Lask Linz's shots conceded (0.90× the league rate against) takes 6.8 pts from over 26.5 shots.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Shots on target

Over 7.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 7.5 Avoid 71%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±6.3%
  • Over 7.5 shots on target: 71%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Austria Lustenau 4.2, Lask Linz 5.5 — 9.7 in total against a line of 7.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±6.3%.
  • Lask Linz's shots on target for (1.29× the league rate) adds 13.2 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots on target at home) adds 5.7 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Austria Lustenau's shots on target conceded (1.10× the league rate against) adds 4.8 pts to over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Lask Linz's shots on target conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 3.7 pts from over 7.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Over 8.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 8.5 Avoid 60%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.7%
  • Over 8.5 shots on target: 60%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Austria Lustenau 4.2, Lask Linz 5.5 — 9.7 in total against a line of 8.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.7%.
  • Lask Linz's shots on target for (1.29× the league rate) adds 14.4 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots on target at home) adds 6.3 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Austria Lustenau's shots on target conceded (1.10× the league rate against) adds 5.4 pts to over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Lask Linz's shots on target conceded (0.91× the league rate against) takes 4.3 pts from over 8.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.
Under 9.5 shots on target Shots on target O/U 9.5 Avoid 51%
No bookmaker price: the model alone, uncertainty ±7.0%
  • Under 9.5 shots on target: 51%. Bookmakers do not price this market here, so this is the model alone.
  • Expected shots on target: Austria Lustenau 4.2, Lask Linz 5.5 — 9.7 in total against a line of 9.5.
  • Simulated 10,000 times; model uncertainty ±7.0%.
  • Lask Linz's shots on target for (1.29× the league rate) takes 14.3 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% shots on target at home) takes 6.4 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Austria Lustenau's shots on target conceded (1.10× the league rate against) takes 5.6 pts from under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Lask Linz's shots on target conceded (0.91× the league rate against) adds 4.5 pts to under 9.5 shots on target.
  • Tagged Avoid: no bookmaker price to measure value against.

Likely scores

Austria Lustenau down, Lask Linz across
012345
07%6%6%3%1%0%
17%13%8%4%1%0%
26%9%6%3%1%0%
33%4%3%1%1%0%
41%2%1%1%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–1 13%, 2–1 9%, 1–2 8%.

Team news

Referee: Emil Ristoskov.

Rest: Austria Lustenau 6 days, Lask Linz 3 days.

Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1 (M. Mader)

Danilo Soares, D. Kacuri, Alieu Conateh, D. Weixelbraun, R. Voisine, L. Afrifa, Anilson, D. Schierl, N. Pertlwieser, M. Maak, A. Verinac

Lask Linz 3-4-1-2 (D. Kühbauer)

L. Jungwirth, M. Freckleton, M. Bogarde, S. Adeniran, R. Ljubičić, S. Kalajdzic, Daniel Elfadli, Y. Dibango, F. Flecker, S. Horvath, Alemão

Why it changed

3 versions
  1. Version 3 Sat 14:41, event: lineups
    • Triggered by Confirmed lineups released: Lask Linz 3-4-1-2, Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1.
    • Our probabilities: Home win 17% → 17% (+0.6 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+0.8 pts); Away win 62% → 61% (-1.4 pts).
  2. Version 2 Sat 03:50, scheduled
    • Our probabilities: Home win 15% → 17% (+1.6 pts); Away win 64% → 62% (-1.6 pts).
    • Market (de-vigged): Home win 11% → 12%; Away win 71% → 70%.
  3. Version 1 Sat 00:03, scheduled
    First published. Hashed into the public ledger.

Events we caught

  • Sat 14:40 Confirmed lineups released: Lask Linz 3-4-1-2, Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1 New version published