Sturm Graz
13:30
Ried
Sun 25 Oct, 13:30
Merkur-Arena
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
58%
Bookmakers 56%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 23%
Away win
20%
Bookmakers 21%
Us 58%Bookmakers 56%
Edge +1.7 pts
Uncertainty ±1.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 58% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.7% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 58% against a market price of 56% (+1.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsSturm Graz
WWLWL
- 22 Oct · H v Marseille 1–0 (xG 1.47–0.73)
- 18 Oct · H v Grazer AK 6–1 (xG 3.63–0.61)
- 15 Oct · A v Bournemouth 0–3 (xG 0.37–2.88)
- 10 Oct · A v Austria Vienna 2–0 (xG 2.67–2.31)
- 20 Sep · A v Red Bull Salzburg 0–3 (xG 0.49–1.61)
Ried
WWWDL
- 17 Oct · H v Austria Vienna 3–2 (xG 2.94–1.72)
- 10 Oct · A v WSG Wattens 2–1 (xG 1.60–1.44)
- 20 Sep · H v Wolfsberger AC 4–1 (xG 4.83–1.96)
- 11 Sep · H v Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 (xG 0.82–1.56)
- 30 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–3 (xG 1.66–2.67)
Head-to-head
Sturm Graz 2 · draws 0 · Ried 0, 2.5 goals a game
- 8 Feb 2026 · Sturm Graz 1–0 Ried (Bundesliga)
- 16 Aug 2025 · Ried 1–3 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)