Derby
0–1
Stoke City
Sat 17 Oct, 14:00
Pride Park Stadium
Oliver Langford, England
Our pick: Home win
Upset Watch LostHome win
37%
Bookmakers 33%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 40%
Us 37%Bookmakers 33%
Edge +4.8 pts
Uncertainty ±2.7%
Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market.
- Home win: 37% against a market price of 33% (+4.8%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsDerby
LDDLL
- 14 Oct · A v QPR 1–4 (xG 1.02–2.05)
- 10 Oct · H v Wrexham 1–1 (xG 0.60–1.46)
- 19 Sep · A v Burnley 1–1 (xG 1.75–0.45)
- 12 Sep · H v Birmingham 1–2 (xG 1.11–3.17)
- 9 Sep · H v West Brom 0–1 (xG 1.27–0.38)
Stoke City
LWWWD
- 13 Oct · H v Middlesbrough 2–3 (xG 0.65–2.57)
- 10 Oct · A v Bolton 2–1 (xG 0.74–3.13)
- 19 Sep · H v Sheffield Utd 2–1 (xG 0.65–0.36)
- 12 Sep · A v Watford 2–1 (xG 1.50–0.39)
- 8 Sep · A v Cardiff 1–1 (xG 0.75–2.92)
Head-to-head
Derby 1 · draws 1 · Stoke City 2, 2.3 goals a game
- 6 Apr 2026 · Derby 2–0 Stoke City (Championship)
- 9 Aug 2025 · Stoke City 3–1 Derby (Championship)
- 3 May 2025 · Derby 0–0 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2 Nov 2024 · Stoke City 2–1 Derby (Championship)