Cardiff
1–0
Birmingham
Sat 24 Oct, 14:00
Cardiff City Stadium
Tim Robinson, England
Match result: no bet
WonHome win
39%
Bookmakers 35%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 40%
Us 39%Bookmakers 35%
Edge +4.2 pts
Uncertainty ±4.6%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 39% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +4.2% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 39% against a market price of 35% (+4.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsCardiff
DWLWL
- 17 Oct · A v Middlesbrough 2–2 (xG 0.91–2.78)
- 13 Oct · H v Watford 5–1 (xG 3.67–1.46)
- 10 Oct · A v Blackburn 1–2 (xG 1.06–1.79)
- 19 Sep · H v Charlton 3–1 (xG 2.60–1.26)
- 12 Sep · A v Bolton 0–1 (xG 1.79–0.48)
Birmingham
WWWDW
- 17 Oct · H v QPR 3–0 (xG 1.34–1.17)
- 13 Oct · H v Preston 4–0 (xG 2.24–0.49)
- 10 Oct · A v West Brom 1–0 (xG 2.60–1.13)
- 19 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 2–2 (xG 1.23–2.14)
- 12 Sep · A v Derby 2–1 (xG 3.17–1.11)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.