Lincoln
4–1
Burnley
Sat 24 Oct, 14:00
Sincil Bank
Thomas Parsons, England
Match result: no bet
WonHome win
41%
Bookmakers 34%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
32%
Bookmakers 39%
Us 41%Bookmakers 34%
Edge +7.6 pts
Uncertainty ±4.9%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 41% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +7.6% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 41% against a market price of 34% (+7.6%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsLincoln
DLLLW
- 17 Oct · A v Millwall 2–2 (xG 0.75–1.87)
- 14 Oct · H v West Ham 0–6 (xG 0.39–3.23)
- 10 Oct · A v Sheffield Utd 0–3 (xG 1.34–0.61)
- 19 Sep · H v Swansea 1–2 (xG 2.11–0.92)
- 15 Sep · A v Bristol City 1–0 (xG 0.53–1.53)
Burnley
LDWDL
- 16 Oct · H v Wolves 1–2 (xG 1.04–1.85)
- 13 Oct · H v Charlton 2–2 (xG 1.08–2.13)
- 10 Oct · A v Watford 4–0 (xG 1.94–0.64)
- 19 Sep · H v Derby 1–1 (xG 0.45–1.75)
- 12 Sep · A v Swansea 1–3 (xG 1.73–2.63)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.