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FC Orenburg
13:00
Rodina Moskva
Wed 28 Oct, 13:00 Gazovik Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge
  • Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals
    Us 78%Books 79% Best odds 1.22 (Pinnacle)

Match result: no bet

Home win
50%
Bookmakers 51%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
23%
Bookmakers 22%
Us 50%Bookmakers 51% Edge -1.1 pts Uncertainty ±3.7%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 50% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

  • Home win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-1.1%).

The full reasoning, 17 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

FC Orenburg

WDWWD
  • 23 Oct · A v Akhmat 1–0 (xG 0.76–1.65)
  • 19 Oct · A v Rodina Moskva 2–2 (xG 2.31–1.90)
  • 15 Oct · A v Rubin 4–1
  • 10 Oct · H v Dinamo Makhachkala 4–0
  • 17 Sep · H v FC Krasnodar 0–0 (xG 1.44–1.28)

Rodina Moskva

WDLLD
  • 24 Oct · A v Fakel 1–0 (xG 1.20–0.64)
  • 19 Oct · H v FC Orenburg 2–2 (xG 1.90–2.31)
  • 15 Oct · H v Spartak Moscow 2–4
  • 11 Oct · A v CSKA Moscow 0–3
  • 16 Sep · H v Rubin 1–1 (xG 1.12–1.55)

Head-to-head

FC Orenburg 1 · draws 1 · Rodina Moskva 0, 4.5 goals a game

  • 19 Oct 2026 · Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
  • 18 Aug 2026 · Rodina Moskva 1–4 FC Orenburg (Cup)