Crawley Town
18:45
Shrewsbury
Tue 20 Oct, 18:45
Broadfield Stadium
Match of the day: fully open
Bets on this match
Best expected value first, at the best price we found-
Match resultHome winUpset WatchUs 38%Books 33% Edge +5.1 pts Best odds 3.00 (Bet365) Expected return +14.4%Underdog priced 5.1% too long by the market (2.2× our uncertainty).
Our pick: Home win
Upset WatchHome win
38%
Bookmakers 33%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 39%
Us 38%Bookmakers 33%
Edge +5.1 pts
Uncertainty ±2.3%
Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.1% too long by the market (2.2× our uncertainty). Match simulator (10,000 simulated games per match)
Why
- Home win: 38% against a market price of 33% (+5.1%).
- Expected goals Crawley Town 1.47 – 1.20 Shrewsbury.
- Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±4.7%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
- Home advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 3.7 pts to home win.
- Shrewsbury's attack (0.96× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.
- Current form (Elo gap -1 for Crawley Town, Crawley Town creating +13% xG lately) takes 0.5 pts from home win.
- Crawley Town's defence (1.03× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.
- Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.1% too long by the market (2.2× our uncertainty).
- What changed since v1:
- Our probabilities: Home win 37% → 38% (+1.4 pts); Away win 36% → 35% (-1.1 pts).
- Tag changed from Value to Upset Watch.
What moved the number
Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
3.7
Missing regular starters
0.6
Shrewsbury attack
0.5
Form
-0.5
Crawley Town defence
-0.4
Shrewsbury defence
-0.2
Rest days
0.2
Crawley Town attack
-0.2
Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.
How the price moved
Implied chance of home win, per bookmakerForm and head-to-head
All competitionsElo rating Crawley Town 1362, Shrewsbury 1363. Our model reads recent xG for and against, Elo and these meetings before kickoff; the reasons above show how much each moved the numbers.
Crawley Town
LDWLL
- 17 Oct · A v Salford City 1–2 (xG 0.56–1.68)
- 10 Oct · H v Chesterfield 2–2 (xG 2.20–2.05)
- 6 Oct · H v Bromley 4–0
- 22 Sep · A v Milton Keynes Dons 1–4
- 19 Sep · A v Grimsby 0–2 (xG 1.05–4.03)
Shrewsbury
WLLWD
- 17 Oct · H v Bristol Rovers 1–0 (xG 1.66–0.53)
- 10 Oct · H v Exeter City 0–1 (xG 1.96–1.01)
- 6 Oct · H v Stockport County 0–2
- 3 Oct · A v Grimsby 2–1 (xG 1.18–2.05)
- 26 Sep · H v Colchester 2–2
Head-to-head
Crawley Town 1 · draws 1 · Shrewsbury 2, 3.0 goals a game
- 18 Apr 2026 · Crawley Town 0–0 Shrewsbury (League Two)
- 18 Oct 2025 · Shrewsbury 1–0 Crawley Town (League Two)
- 3 May 2025 · Shrewsbury 1–2 Crawley Town (League One)
- 12 Oct 2024 · Crawley Town 3–5 Shrewsbury (League One)
Likely scores
Crawley Town down, Shrewsbury across| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Most likely: 1–1 12%, 1–0 10%, 2–1 9%.
Team news
Rest: Crawley Town 3 days, Shrewsbury 3 days.
Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.
Why it changed
2 versions-
Version 2 Tue 04:31, scheduled
- Our probabilities: Home win 37% → 38% (+1.4 pts); Away win 36% → 35% (-1.1 pts).
- Tag changed from Value to Upset Watch.
-
Version 1 Tue 00:21, scheduledFirst published. Recorded in the public ledger.