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Cheltenham
1–0
Newport County
Sat 24 Oct, 11:30 Whaddon Road

Match result: no bet

Won
Home win
40%
Bookmakers 37%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
34%
Bookmakers 35%
Us 40%Bookmakers 37% Edge +2.4 pts Uncertainty ±2.6%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.4% alone is not enough).

  • Home win: 40% against a market price of 37% (+2.4%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Cheltenham

WLDLL
  • 20 Oct · H v Fleetwood Town 4–2 (xG 1.91–2.38)
  • 17 Oct · A v Oldham 1–4 (xG 0.95–2.24)
  • 13 Oct · H v Tottenham Hotspur U21 2–2
  • 10 Oct · H v Salford City 0–2 (xG 0.16–1.54)
  • 3 Oct · A v Accrington ST 0–2 (xG 0.19–3.60)

Newport County

DDWDD
  • 20 Oct · A v Rotherham 2–2 (xG 1.92–1.44)
  • 17 Oct · H v York 1–1 (xG 1.04–1.09)
  • 10 Oct · H v Colchester 1–0 (xG 1.64–0.73)
  • 6 Oct · H v Plymouth 2–2
  • 3 Oct · A v Gillingham 0–0 (xG 1.25–0.31)

Head-to-head

Cheltenham 5 · draws 0 · Newport County 0, 2.8 goals a game

  • 18 Apr 2026 · Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County (League Two)
  • 18 Oct 2025 · Newport County 0–2 Cheltenham (League Two)
  • 22 Feb 2025 · Newport County 0–3 Cheltenham (League Two)
  • 3 Sep 2024 · Newport County 1–2 Cheltenham (EFL Trophy)
  • 10 Aug 2024 · Cheltenham 3–2 Newport County (League Two)