Notts County
18:45
Sheffield Wednesday
Tue 20 Oct, 18:45
Meadow Lane
Match of the day: fully open
Bets on this match
Best expected value first, at the best price we found-
Match resultHome winUpset WatchUs 34%Books 29% Edge +4.1 pts Best odds 3.25 (Pinnacle) Expected return +9.1%Underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market (2.2× our uncertainty).
Our pick: Home win
Upset WatchHome win
34%
Bookmakers 29%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
39%
Bookmakers 44%
Us 34%Bookmakers 29%
Edge +4.1 pts
Uncertainty ±1.8%
Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market (2.2× our uncertainty). Match simulator (10,000 simulated games per match)
Why
- Home win: 34% against a market price of 29% (+4.1%).
- Expected goals Notts County 1.33 – 1.09 Sheffield Wednesday.
- Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±5.4%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
- Home advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.
- Current form (Elo gap +119 for Notts County, Sheffield Wednesday creating +10% xG lately) adds 1.7 pts to home win.
- Sheffield Wednesday's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.
- Sheffield Wednesday's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.
- Tagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market (2.2× our uncertainty).
What moved the number
Points of probability for home win
Home advantage
2.3
Form
1.7
Sheffield Wednesday attack
-0.8
Sheffield Wednesday defence
-0.8
Missing regular starters
-0.3
Notts County attack
-0.1
Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.
How the price moved
Implied chance of home win, per bookmakerForm and head-to-head
All competitionsElo rating Notts County 1539, Sheffield Wednesday 1420. Our model reads recent xG for and against, Elo and these meetings before kickoff; the reasons above show how much each moved the numbers.
Notts County
LWLWL
- 17 Oct · A v Wycombe 0–2 (xG 0.47–1.33)
- 13 Oct · H v Nottingham Forest U21 5–1
- 10 Oct · H v Oxford United 1–2 (xG 0.56–1.35)
- 22 Sep · H v Grimsby 2–1
- 19 Sep · A v Reading 0–2
Sheffield Wednesday
WDWWD
- 17 Oct · H v AFC Wimbledon 5–0 (xG 2.64–0.39)
- 10 Oct · A v Huddersfield 2–2 (xG 1.79–1.81)
- 6 Oct · H v Sunderland U21 2–0
- 22 Sep · A v Salford City 2–1
- 19 Sep · H v Stockport County 0–0
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.
Likely scores
Notts County down, Sheffield Wednesday across| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 12% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Most likely: 1–1 13%, 1–0 12%, 0–1 9%.
Team news
Rest: Notts County 3 days, Sheffield Wednesday 3 days.
Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.
Why it changed
1 version-
Version 1 Tue 00:22, scheduledFirst published. Hashed into the public ledger.