Valencia
1–2
Villarreal
Sat 24 Oct, 16:30
Estadio de Mestalla
Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
Match result: no bet
WonHome win
29%
Bookmakers 29%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
46%
Bookmakers 44%
Us 46%Bookmakers 44%
Edge +1.4 pts
Uncertainty ±2.7%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 46% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.4% alone is not enough).
- Away win: 46% against a market price of 44% (+1.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsValencia
DDLWL
- 17 Oct · H v Athletic Club 0–0 (xG 1.49–0.65)
- 11 Oct · A v Racing Santander 2–2 (xG 1.70–1.31)
- 20 Sep · H v Real Sociedad 2–3 (xG 1.55–2.65)
- 15 Sep · A v Alaves 1–0 (xG 0.65–1.05)
- 11 Sep · A v Sevilla 0–1 (xG 0.10–0.93)
Villarreal
LDWLW
- 20 Oct · A v Liverpool 3–4 (xG 1.59–2.41)
- 17 Oct · H v Elche 0–0 (xG 2.23–0.31)
- 13 Oct · H v Napoli 3–1 (xG 1.24–1.70)
- 10 Oct · A v Real Madrid 0–1 (xG 0.59–1.43)
- 20 Sep · H v Levante 3–1 (xG 4.27–0.45)
Head-to-head
Valencia 0 · draws 2 · Villarreal 2, 2.3 goals a game
- 22 Feb 2026 · Villarreal 2–1 Valencia (La Liga)
- 25 Oct 2025 · Valencia 0–2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 15 Feb 2025 · Villarreal 1–1 Valencia (La Liga)
- 31 Aug 2024 · Valencia 1–1 Villarreal (La Liga)