Alverca
0–1
Arouca
Sat 24 Oct, 17:00
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
Match result: no bet
LostHome win
42%
Bookmakers 44%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
31%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 42%Bookmakers 44%
Edge -1.7 pts
Uncertainty ±2.3%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 42% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 42% against a market price of 44% (-1.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAlverca
LWWWL
- 18 Oct · A v Tondela 0–2
- 12 Oct · A v Famalicao 4–1 (xG 2.92–0.40)
- 19 Sep · H v Rio Ave 1–0 (xG 3.30–0.29)
- 12 Sep · A v Nacional 3–1 (xG 1.16–2.20)
- 5 Sep · H v SC Braga 1–2 (xG 1.08–2.27)
Arouca
WWDLD
- 18 Oct · A v CF Os Belenenses 4–3
- 11 Oct · H v Estrela 1–0 (xG 0.74–1.45)
- 19 Sep · A v Sporting CP 2–2 (xG 2.08–1.28)
- 13 Sep · H v Santa Clara 1–2 (xG 0.72–1.16)
- 7 Sep · A v Estoril 0–0 (xG 1.07–0.86)
Head-to-head
Alverca 1 · draws 0 · Arouca 1, 2.0 goals a game
- 24 Apr 2026 · Alverca 2–1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 14 Dec 2025 · Arouca 1–0 Alverca (Primeira Liga)