Estrela
14:30
Casa Pia
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30
Estadio Jose Gomes
Bruno Pires Costa
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
50%
Bookmakers 54%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
24%
Bookmakers 20%
Us 50%Bookmakers 54%
Edge -3.9 pts
Uncertainty ±2.1%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 50% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 50% against a market price of 54% (-3.9%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsEstrela
WLLDW
- 17 Oct · A v Fazendense 2–1
- 11 Oct · A v Arouca 0–1 (xG 1.45–0.74)
- 20 Sep · H v Academico Viseu 0–2 (xG 0.84–2.54)
- 14 Sep · A v Rio Ave 3–3 (xG 1.87–1.23)
- 10 Sep · H v SC Braga 2–1 (xG 0.57–0.61)
Casa Pia
WLWLD
- 18 Oct · A v Alpendorada 1–0
- 10 Oct · H v Santa Clara 0–1 (xG 0.43–0.61)
- 20 Sep · A v Estoril 2–1 (xG 2.17–0.95)
- 12 Sep · H v FC Porto 1–4 (xG 1.59–2.60)
- 6 Sep · A v Vitória SC 0–0 (xG 0.21–2.48)
Head-to-head
Estrela 2 · draws 0 · Casa Pia 2, 3.5 goals a game
- 20 Mar 2026 · Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 1 Nov 2025 · Casa Pia 3–5 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 9 Feb 2025 · Casa Pia 1–0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 31 Aug 2024 · Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)